Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 8:42 PM

AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
835 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor tweaks to thunderstorm timing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A pre-frontal trough and cold front will bring a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening.

2) Prolonged period of below normal temperatures expected behind the
front well into next week.

Marine...Small Craft conditions expected into Monday evening.
Prolonged period of poor marine conditions looking increasingly
likely around midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front currently
just lee of the Appalachians this afternoon with a prefrontal trough
located across the Coastal Plain as a result of differential heating
boundaries across ENC. Latest satellite imagery shows some
clearing out ahead of the cold front in the Coastal Plain while
radar imagery shows some isolated showers tracking from S-N
across the coastal waters and along the far eastern zones while
broken and scattered line of showers and thunderstorms have
developed just off to the west in association with the
aforementioned prefrontal trough. This activity just to the
west is what we will be monitoring this afternoon for severe
potential.

Overall forecast thinking for this afternoon and evening has not
changed much as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected. The first round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast
to be associated with the prefrontal trough. This activity is
currently just entering into the western Coastal Plain. Latest RAP
analysis shows widespread MLCAPE values of about 500-1000 J/kg with
modest mid level lapse rates (less than 6 C/km) and deep layer shear
values around 20-30 kts. While normally this would preclude much of
a severe threat, given low level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and 3CAPE
values ranging from 100-175 J/kg across the Coastal Plain, this
should provide enough of a forcing mechanism for a few storms to
organize this afternoon and evening as they enter into ENC. Storm
mode will likely be a mix of thunderstorm clusters and linear
segments. With Inverted V soundings, low mid level lapse rates and
little SRH (on the order of less than 100 m2/s2) think the main
threat will be damaging downburst wind gusts. This thunderstorm
activity then nears the coast closer to 6-8PM timeframe eventually
congealing into linear segments if not a continuous linear segment.
This once again would bring a damaging wind threat to the coast
as this activity passes through, though with a more stable
marine layer, unless a strong cold pool sets up with this
activity the severe threat could be limited along the coast
this evening. As a result of the above, SPC has our entire CWA
under a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather.

The second round of thunderstorm activity is then associated
with the approaching cold front. The cold front itself doesn`t
begin entering into ENC until about 8-9PM. While wind shear
values will be on the increase with 50+ knots of deep layer
shear expected tonight, with much of the area worked over from
previous activity this afternoon, instability may be a bit more
limited after sunset and therefore think the severe threat will
quickly lower after about 7-8 PM, with the cold front it self
likely bringing more of a general thunder risk than a severe
risk.

This thunderstorm activity will bring some much welcome rainfall to
ENC given the area is under a severe drought. Model QPF hasn`t
changed much with guidance suggesting anywhere from about
0.75-1.5 inches of rainfall for inland areas and 0.25-0.75
inches along the coast. Will note some of the more aggressive
guidance and HREF LPMM suggest if thunderstorms can train over
each other this afternoon and evening then we could see amounts
as high as 1.5-2". This threat corridor mainly looks to be
along and west of Hwy 17. Though it is a lower end threat
overall. Will note forecast rainfall amounts tend to be
overstated in long-term drought conditions like ours, but the
forcing and deeper moisture with this system appears strong
enough to overcome the antecedent dry conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The front will move offshore early Monday morning
and cooler high pressure will build in behind it, resulting in much
cooler highs to kick off the new week (mid to upper 60s inland/low
60s beaches). A quick, moisture-starved reinforcing cold front will
then move across the area on Tuesday. Although no rain is expected
with this FROPA, the post-frontal air mass will bring the coldest
high temps of the week on Wednesday (low to mid 60s inland/low 60s
beaches). We`ll moderate thereafter and be back to low 80s
inland/low 70s beaches by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorm threat has ended, and now trailing stratiform rain
and embedded showers will persist through this evening, coming
to an end by aroundmidnight. Cold front will move through with
pred VFR conditions expected to return. Gusty N winds will
accompany the fropa later this evening, and then slowly diminish
through late morning Mon as high pres begins to build in.

Outlook (Tue through Thu): Pred VFR expected through Thursday
with high pressure over the area, through a dry reinforcing cold
front will push through the area Tuesday bringing a period of
gusty northerly to nerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions will remain in place across much if not
all of our waters through Monday. A tight pressure gradient is noted
across the area out ahead of an approaching cold front which has
resulted in SW winds of 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt and seas of
4-7 ft over our area. This has resulted in widespread SCA conditions
across all area waters this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will occur ahead of and with the front, leaving
the door open for convection between early evening and
approximately midnight. Within thunderstorms, frequent lightning
and strong wind gusts in excess of 40-50 kt will be possible.
Otherwise elevated SW winds and seas will continue into this
evening with winds potentially easing slightly after about 8PM
just ahead of the front before increasing once again back to
15-20 kts but shifting to a N`rly direction behind the front
with gusts up around 25-30 kts across most of our area waters.
One caveat to this is across the inland rivers where winds will
likely be lower tonight due to an inversion, thus capping max
potential N`rly wind gusts tonight across these areas at closer
to 20 kts. For this reason the SCA`s will likely continue
everywhere but the inland rivers tonight. After the cold front
pushes offshore and moves further out to sea, winds will ease
down to 5-10 kts and become NE-E`rly by Mon evening. Though seas
will remain elevated into Monday evening with 4-6 ft seas
forecast so while, inland water SCA`s will end, our central and
southern waters will likely see SCA conditions persist into Mon
evening before ending.

Outlook: Once SCAs drop tomorrow evening, we should remain
headline free until Tuesday evening when the next front is
expected to pass. The latest forecast has NE winds at 20-25 kt
with gusts to 25-30+ kt and 6-9 ft seas Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Behind this front, seas will likely remain elevated
through the rest of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$