Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 9:39 PM

AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
924 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory now in effect through late morning Monday
with frequent gusts of 25 kt expected following a cold fropa.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Cold front moves across tonight, with scattered
  thunderstorms ahead of the front late this afternoon through
  this evening.

- 2) Temperatures near or a few degrees below normal Monday
  through Thursday. No frost/freeze expected at this time.

- 3) Temperatures on the rise Friday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front moves across tonight, with scattered
thunderstorms ahead of the front late this afternoon through this
evening.

Scattered thunderstorms will impact the area through this evening
due to warm, moist airmass in place ahead of approaching cold front.
While storms are expected to remain sub-severe, stronger storms
could produce wind gusts up to 50 kts/58 mph. Average QPF remains on
the meager side - however, hi-res guidance continues to show a band
of heavier rainfall (1-1.5+") setting up somewhere across our CWA
due to relatively high PWATs and SW storm motion contributing to
training of cells. Thunderstorms will weaken around sunset, with
showers lingering until the cold front moves offshore around
midnight. Cooler air moves in behind the front, with temps ~10F
lower than past 24 hours.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures near or below normal Monday through
Thursday. No frost/freeze expected at this time.

The cold front will move off the coast after midnight tonight,
and CAA on Monday will keep high temperatures a couple of
degrees below climo. The cool advection will weaken on Tuesday
and allow temps to climb to the lower 70s, however enhanced NE
flow will develop Wednesday as a wedge of high pressure briefly
builds across the interior Carolinas. This will keep Wednesday
highs in the mid 60s most areas. Enough of a pressure gradient
should be in place to maintain a breeze during the overnights,
keeping lows from dipping below 40.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures on the rise Friday through next
weekend.

Surface high pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast late
in the week, and a mid-level ridge will develop overhead for
the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will swing back above normal
Friday, then continue to warm Saturday and Sunday, reaching
around 80 degrees away from the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
through the area this evening, and have handled this with TEMPO
groups through 02-04Z along with associated MVFR cigs.
Otherwise, a sharp wind shift from SW to N is expected overnight
with a cold fropa, mainly in the 10-15 kt range tonight into
Monday with dry and VFR conditions.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR conditions expected through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...SSW winds 15-20 kts, with occasional gusts to 25
kts, will prevail over the local coastal waters until a cold front
moves offshore shortly after midnight. Seas 4-5 ft ahead of the
front due to combination of 4 ft S fresh swell and 3 ft ESE 8 sec
swell. Scattered showers will impact the waters until late this
evening. Winds turn northerly quickly behind the front,
sustained 15-20 kts with frequent gusts of 25 kts between 6z and
midday Monday. High pressure briefly moving across will weaken
the northeasterly winds Monday afternoon and evening. Seas 3-4
ft early Monday, with a few 5 footers in outer coastal waters,
will lower to 2-4 ft late Monday, combination of persisting ESE
swell and fresh NE swell.

Monday night through Thursday...High pressure will extend across
the Mid-Atlantic Monday night, resulting in persistent NE flow
across the waters, although speeds will remain below advisory
thresholds through the daytime hours Tuesday. The NE flow will
intensify late Tuesday as broad high pressure moves across the
Great Lakes and New England states, strengthening the gradient
over the waters as a weak low several hundred miles off the SE
coast moves NE. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to
develop Tuesday evening, likely continuing through the week in
persistent NE flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
After repeated arctic outbreaks in January and February, local
year-to-date temperature anomalies on February 10 were as much
as 5 degrees below normal. Recent very warm temperatures in
March and now continuing into April have erased virtually all of
this anomalous cold. YTD temperature anomalies through April 3
are now +0.3 degrees in Wilmington, +0.1 degrees in North Myrtle
Beach and Lumberton, but still -0.2 degrees in Florence.

CPC outlooks across the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-4 week
timeframes all show an enhanced potential for above normal
temperatures across the Carolinas, implying local cities should
have growing positive YTD temperature anomalies by the end of
the month.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$