Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 10:54 PM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1052 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Easterly breezes will continue to gradually slacken over the
  course of tonight and tomorrow.

- Although passing showers are possible, significant rainfall is
  not likely through Monday.

- There is increasing confidence for above normal shower and
  possible thunderstorm chances for Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
Surface analysis places a frontal boundary extending from the
northern Gulf coast northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic states. The
Florida Keys remain under the loose influence of a weakening high
pressure system now centered east of Bermuda. KBYX radar is
detecting a few isolated showers in the eastern Straits of
Florida, with the Florida Keys rain-free, and generally partly
cloudy skies detected from nighttime GOES-19 products. Given the
collapsing flow, a modestly backed low-level wind profile, and
meager low-level moisture, elected to lower measurable rain
chances to slight levels for tonight. This may be the last rather
routine short-term forecast for the next several days, as the
aforementioned frontal boundary stalls just north of the Keys
early this week, providing an opportunity for several bouts of
rainy and thundery conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
From synopsis, Breezes will continue to slacken while an Atlantic
high weakens and moves farther east. There is high confidence
that light to gentle breezes will persist through Tuesday. A high
pressure system descending into the Northern Plains on Tuesday
night will push a frontal boundary south towards the Florida Keys.
Considerable uncertainty surrounds where the front will stall,
and when breezes will freshen later this week. In contrast to the
wind field, there is high confidence for a chance of showers with
a slight chance of thunderstorms mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
While a passing shower cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the
terminals, especially MTH overnight, VFR conditions will prevail
through 00z Monday evening. Near-surface winds out of the
northeast to east will remain at around 10 to 12 knots,
occasionally gusting to near 18 knots early in the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  73  83  72 /  20  20  20  30
Marathon  82  74  81  73 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$