Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 11:54 PM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1050 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Key Messages:

 * Light rain will likely continue tonight into Monday, with rain
   chances decreasing by Monday afternoon.

 * Low (10-20%) daily rain chances will be likely Tuesday night
   through Wednesday.

 * An upper level disturbance will bring a 30-50% chance for
   showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

 * A High Risk of Rip Currents will continue through Monday
   evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Light rain will likely continue tonight with rain chances
diminishing through the day Monday. Predominately zonal upper-
level flow across South Texas looks to setup Monday afternoon and
remain in place through mid-week. A few weak mid- level shortwaves
and low level moisture advection will likely support limited rain
chances around 10-20% through Wednesday. A stronger upper-level
shortwave looks to move through the area Thursday into Friday.
Increased forcing with this pattern will likely destabilize the
atmosphere, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to
around 30-50%.

Temperatures are forecast to gradually warm through the week as
cloud cover decreases Monday afternoon and winds shift easterly to
southeasterly Tuesday. High temperatures Monday will likely range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with highs increasing to the low to
mid 80s by Wednesday. Likewise, low temperatures will likely range
from the mid to upper 50s tonight, increasing to the mid to upper
60s by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions will continue this evening into the
overnight hours as light rain with the occasional heavier shower
continue to impact the airfields. Conditions are forecast to begin
improving Monday morning as rain chances decrease and ceilings
begin to lift to VFR levels. Gusty northerly winds are forecast
to continue this evening before diminishing overnight. Wind gusts
are forecast to increase again by Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until until 1 PM Monday for
the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. Strong northerly winds will
likely begin to decrease in intensity late Monday morning,
allowing seas to gradually improve through the afternoon. The
Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended or replaced with
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines depending on how
quickly seas improve.

Winds will likely shift to the east to southeast Monday night into
Tuesday, with generally favorable winds and seas likely to persist
through the remainder of the forecast. Rain chances between 20-40%
will likely persist through much of the week over the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             58  71  58  77 /  90  60  10  20
HARLINGEN               55  72  54  79 /  90  50  10  10
MCALLEN                 59  73  58  81 /  80  40   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         55  70  56  78 /  70  20   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      65  70  66  74 /  90  60  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     59  71  60  78 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$