Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 1:39 AM

AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
126 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

    - Dangerous Rip Currents to continue through the week.

    - Scattered urban flooding possible along the east coast
      Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

    - Strong winds expected across the east coast beginning on
      Tuesday and peaking through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The northern and southern streams will remain loosely connected as
shortwaves from the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and
the Great Lakes region superposition across the Northeast while a
southern stream shortwave moves from west Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley. This will have the effect of amplifying the
base of the eastern CONUS longwave trough into the Southeast on
Monday. This amplification and the resultant low-level response
will keep a cold front progressing through north and Central
Florida on Monday. As this frontal system moves the longwave
pattern eastward, the nose of the surface ridge will slowly move
out of south Florida, though a weak area of low pressure over the
eastern Bahamas should keep easterly or southeasterly low-level
flow prevailing through Monday.

The above will likely mean that the convective pattern for south
Florida will be dominated by scattered showers along the east
coast in the morning, followed by more robust convection across
the interior and southwest portions of the region later in the day
as the easterly flow interacts with the Gulf Breeze. Weakly
diffluent flow aloft, 500mb temps near the daily mean, and PWATs
in the upper quartile will favor a greater coverage in the
aforementioned areas than recent afternoons, though the severe
threat doesn`t seem atypical for this time of year. The strongest
cells may produce a quick 1-2 inches of rain, with isolated
pockets of 2-4 inches not out of the question. However, due the
expected location of these heavier pockets, significant flooding
impacts are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The shortwave pattern above will have an influence on how strong
and the position of next weeks ridge axis set to build across the
Eastern Seaboard. We should get a clearer picture into this
evolution some time tomorrow, and thus have a clearer picture as
to *some* of the timing/positioning of the area of highest QPF
along the east coast of Florida Tuesday through Wednesday. While
there will be a decaying frontal boundary across the state that
may focus a few of the stronger storms, the more broad forcing
mechanism will be the strong easterly flow across the Gulf Stream
and resultant near surface thermal gradients. This will set-up
areas of ascent just offshore across the northern half of the
Peninsula, and more focused right along the coast across the
southern half. It will also result in the development of an
inverted trough across the east coast of Florida which will aid in
the increase of convergence near the coast. Generally speaking the
threat area for heavy rain will shift from the Palm Beach coast on
Tuesday to the entire east coast on Wednesday with scattered
amounts of 1.5-2.5 inches in the threat areas each day. Isolated
locations could see amounts as high as 3-4" in short order and WPC
has placed the east coast into a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The strong easterly flow also falls into the top end of
climatology for this time of year. Wednesday is expected to be the
windiest afternoon across much of the east coast, but Tuesday
could be pretty breezy around the Palm Beach coast. While common
speeds of 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots are expected along the
east coast on Wednesday, peak gusts could be on the order of 35
knots at times. These speeds could certainly disrupt unsecured
objects and down branches and fronds.

Lighter, but still elevated easterly flow will continue around the
persistent ridge through the end of the week. The same general
pattern of late night/early morning storms along the east coast,
transitioning to the interior and west coast through the day
should be expected through the end of the week. Pockets of heavy
rainfall will be possible each day, but the threat seems a bit
lower later in the week than during mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Light southeasterly winds will prevail across most locations on
the eastern side of the peninsula. Prevailing VFR conditions are
expected, but some scattered MVFR ceilings and a brief shower or
two in the late morning to afternoon period cannot be ruled out.
Storms are once again expected to develop along the Gulf Breeze in
southwest Florida, so have kept the VCTS for KAPF after 17z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A moderate easterly breeze today will give way to a gentle breeze on
Monday. Tuesday will be a transition day back to a fresh/strong
breeze as a strong area of high pressure builds down the Eastern
Seaboard and the Florida Peninsula. Expect periods of moderate to
heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds (both coasts) and seas (east
coast) will remain elevated through the entire week as strong high
pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic.

At a minimum, Advisory conditions are expected for portions of the
Atlantic and Gulf waters late Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Dangerous rip currents will continue through Monday as moderate
onshore flow continue. The threat will drastically increase by mid
week as onshore flow further increases in response to high
pressure spreading down the Peninsula. In addition to rips surf
heights will build on Tuesday across the Palm beaches and peak
along the entire east coast on Wednesday, with peak breakers
between 6-9 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            83  70  80  70 /  40  60  80  60
West Kendall     85  67  83  66 /  40  60  80  50
Opa-Locka        85  70  81  69 /  40  60  80  60
Homestead        84  70  81  69 /  40  50  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  70  78  69 /  40  60  90  70
N Ft Lauderdale  81  70  78  69 /  40  70  90  70
Pembroke Pines   85  70  82  70 /  40  60  80  60
West Palm Beach  81  69  78  68 /  50  70  90  70
Boca Raton       81  70  78  69 /  40  70  90  70
Naples           84  68  82  67 /  50  70  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$