Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 1:39 AM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Key Messages:

 * Light rain will likely continue tonight into Monday, with rain
   chances decreasing by Monday afternoon.

 * Low (10-20%) daily rain chances will be likely Tuesday night
   through Wednesday.

 * An upper level disturbance will bring a 30-50% chance for
   showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

 * A High Risk of Rip Currents will continue through Monday
   evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Light rain will likely continue tonight with rain chances
diminishing through the day Monday. Predominately zonal upper-
level flow across South Texas looks to setup Monday afternoon and
remain in place through mid-week. A few weak mid- level shortwaves
and low level moisture advection will likely support limited rain
chances around 10-20% through Wednesday. A stronger upper-level
shortwave looks to move through the area Thursday into Friday.
Increased forcing with this pattern will likely destabilize the
atmosphere, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to
around 30-50%.

Temperatures are forecast to gradually warm through the week as
cloud cover decreases Monday afternoon and winds shift easterly to
southeasterly Tuesday. High temperatures Monday will likely range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with highs increasing to the low to
mid 80s by Wednesday. Likewise, low temperatures will likely range
from the mid to upper 50s tonight, increasing to the mid to upper
60s by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Scattered light showers will continue through Monday morning,
bringing primarily MVFR cigs. Temporary, brief IFR conditions are
possible at all sites through around 18Z under heavier showers.
Ceilings gradually lift through the morning as rain chances
diminish, returning to VFR for the afternoon and evening.
Northerly winds, gusty at times during Monday afternoon decrease
again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until until 1 PM Monday for
the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. Strong northerly winds will
likely begin to decrease in intensity late Monday morning,
allowing seas to gradually improve through the afternoon. The
Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended or replaced with
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines depending on how
quickly seas improve.

Winds will likely shift to the east to southeast Monday night into
Tuesday, with generally favorable winds and seas likely to persist
through the remainder of the forecast. Rain chances between 20-40%
will likely persist through much of the week over the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             72  57  78  64 /  30  10  10  30
HARLINGEN               73  54  79  59 /  20   0  10  20
MCALLEN                 75  58  81  62 /  20   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  53  81  60 /  10   0  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      70  66  75  68 /  40  10  20  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  59  78  64 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$