Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 2:39 AM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
229 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Windy Coastal Conditions this Week with Gusts up to 35 mph
  through Tuesday and the up to 45 mph Wednesday.

- High Risk of Rip Currents This Week. Dangerous Surf Zone
  Conditions Develop Today and Continue All Week. High,
  Battering Surf Reaching Local Beaches Wednesday: 7-12 ft
  Breakers

- Small Craft Advisory In Effect through Tuesday Night then a
  Gale Watch is in effect for Frequent Gale Force Wind Gusts on
  Wednesday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Windy Coastal Conditions Today and Tonight

- High Risk of Rip Currents

- Beneficial rain for most of the area. Isolated thunderstorms possible
  for North Central FL

A cold front continues to crawl southward early this morning and
crossed the FL/GA line around midnight. The slow speed of the front
may allow patchy fog, that may become locally dense along the I-75
corridor through rest of the predawn hours, generally expect fog
formation south of Gainesville. Fog should lift as northerly winds
with the front reach the southern zones around 9 AM.

A moderate surge of northeasterly post-frontal winds will push down
the coast this morning leading to breezy coastal conditions and
rougher surf zone conditions. Winds may gust up to 30 mph at the
immediate coast throughout the day and into the evening and
overnight, though there could be a lull between 8 PM and Midnight
tonight.

There will be increasing rain chances today, especially toward the
afternoon and evening as a mid level shortwave lifts northeastward
out of the eastern gulf and then crosses FL tonight. With the
incoming forcing, a persistent stratiform rain will offer a small
amount (generally less than 0.50") of beneficial rainfall through
the afternoon and overnight. There`s a small chance for isolated
storms across the far southern counties (Marion, Putnam, and
Flagler) this afternoon where some diurnal instability may take
shape for a few hours late this morning and afternoon but for
majority of the convection will be to our south today.

Most of the area will be on the cooler side of the stalling front
and beneath mostly cloudy to overcast skies, which will keep highs
in the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon. Though it`ll depend on
the position of the front, some locations from Gainesville south
will still reach the upper 70s to near 80 despite the cloud cover.

As the shortwave passes over the FL peninsula tonight it`ll keep a
blanket of thick overcast across the area and stratiform rain
focused across NE FL. Cloud cover rain should keep low temps in the
mid to upper 50s across NE FL and the low 50s in SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler with windy onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday

- Fire Weather Concerns for inland southeast GA Tuesday

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

Cooler temperatures and strong onshore winds continue Tuesday and
Wednesday areawide, with Wind Advisory gusts likely along the
Atlantic coast and St. Johns river basin. Northeasterly winds will
be near 20 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph on Tuesday, increasing
further to sustained 25 mph gusting at least 40-45 mph on Wednesday
near the coast. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s
to mid 70s both days, with scattered to numerous showers and
isolated storms primarily over coastal northeast FL and north
central FL. Through Wednesday night, highest forecast rainfall
totals will be along the northeast Florida coast. With drier air in
place and breezy conditions, there are fire weather concerns
generally northwest of Waycross on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow continues Thursday, with elevated winds along
the coast and inland to the St. Johns River Basin

High pressure to the northeast continues to bring strong
northeasterly winds Thursday, with the local pressure gradient
beginning to weaken Friday through the weekend. Several days of
gusty northeasterly winds will create beach and marine hazards,
including high surf up to 8-12 feet, moderate beach erosion and
potential minor coastal flooding at times of high tide. Temperatures
will gradually warm up Thursday through the weekend, reaching the
low 80s for some inland areas Friday and Saturday. Higher rain
chances remain in place Thursday, with again coastal northeast
Florida likely to receive the most precipitation through Friday. The
weekend looks mostly dry and warm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Strengthening winds behind a cold front will initially be northerly
from 340-010 and trend to 020-040 through 15z, featuring gusts 20-25
knots through the afternoon. Additionally, a stratus deck around 1.5-
2 kft will move in off the Atlantic and spread across the coastal
terminals today. There will be increasing chances for light, steady
rain around 15z/16z that will last through the afternoon hours and
could lead to MVFR visibility at times. Stratiform rain will
transition to a showery nature this evening as winds lull. Expect
winds and gusts to return overnight between 06z-12z Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...


A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect this morning for a surge of
northeasterly winds pushing north to south along the coast. Strong
onshore winds will continue through the week and will intensify to
Gale Force Tuesday night through Wednesday as strong high pressure
wedges in from the north. Strong onshore winds with a long fetch
will build seas to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday. Winds
will gradually weaken through Thursday and Friday as high pressure
moves away before much improved conditions developing this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

An initial surge of northeast winds this morning will lead to High
Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this
afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip
currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected
Wednesday and surf is expected to build to 10-13 feet during this
period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life-
threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high
breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough
surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Se Ga Tuesday
- Critically Low Min Rh And Breezy Inland Se Georgia Tuesday

Much stronger high pressure builds in from the north for Monday and
remains persistent through mid week, returning breezy to windy
onshore flow and mostly cloudy conditions with chances for showers
the closer to the coast. Critically low minRH values and breezy
winds are forecast Tuesday for portions of inland southeast Georgia,
with potential for red flag conditions prompting a Fire Weather
Watch. Moisture levels will return above critical levels the
remainder of the week, but breezy easterly flow will continue
through Friday. High nighttime dispersions are expected each night
this week as well.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog potential Monday morning
for north central Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  52  75  53 /  30  10  10  10
SSI  68  60  70  61 /  60  40  20  20
JAX  72  57  71  59 /  70  60  40  20
SGJ  74  60  71  63 /  50  80  70  40
GNV  78  55  70  58 /  50  70  40  20
OCF  82  58  70  60 /  50  80  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for GAZ154-
     166.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.
     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
     night for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$