Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 2:54 AM

AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
243 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCA ending times have been adjusted

Increased post-frontal northeasterly winds on Tuesday night

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The cold front is moving offshore and is taking the remaining
showers and thunderstorms with it.

2) Prolonged period of below normal temperatures expected behind the
front well into next week.

Marine...Small Craft conditions are expected to continue into
this evening. A prolonged period of poor marine conditions is
expected to develop Tuesday night and last into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The cold front is moving offshore and is taking
the remaining showers and thunderstorms with it. A surge of
northerly winds behind the front will continue to gust for the
next couple of hours but will diminish as we approach sunrise.
With this CAA, temperatures are expected to fall into the upper
40s inland and low 50s at the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler high pressure will build in today,
resulting in much cooler highs to kick off the new week (mid to
upper 60s inland/upper 50s to low 60s beaches). A quick,
moisture-starved reinforcing cold front will then move across
the area on Tuesday. Although no rain is expected with this
FROPA, the post-frontal air mass will bring the coolest high
temperatures of the week on Wednesday (low 60s). We`ll moderate
thereafter and be back to low 80s inland/upper 60s beaches by
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front and assoc precipitation is pushing offshore early
this morning and a much drier airmass is building into the area.
Lingering MVFR cigs along the coast will improve to VFR in the
next hour or two with mainly high clouds across rtes through the
rest of the TAF period. NNW winds behind the front will gust
around 15-25 kt this morning, then become light and variable
this afternoon as high pressure becomes centered over the area.
The probability for fog tonight is less than 10% with the dry
airmass in place and a thick shield of high clouds expected,
minimizing radiational cooling.

Outlook: Pred VFR expected Tuesday through Friday with high pressure
over the area, through a dry reinforcing cold front will push
through the area Tuesday bringing a period of gusty northerly to
nerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front and its associated showers and thunderstorms are
pushing offshore this morning. A surge of NNE winds is expected
to develop within the next couple of hours, increasing winds to
20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35+ kt (highest near the Gulf Stream)
and building seas to 5-7 ft by later this morning. Conditions
will improve throughout the day with all SCAs scheduled to drop
by this evening. Good boating conditions will be short-lived as
a dry cold front will reintroduce SCA conditions starting
Tuesday night. NE winds at 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt will
develop behind the front Tuesday night with waves building to
6-10 ft in response.

Outlook: Once SCA conditions develop again Tuesday night, seas
will likely remain elevated into the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$