Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 2:57 AM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the tidal rivers of
eastern Virginia and the Currituck Sound.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will trend near or slightly below
average through mid week. There is potential for frost/freeze
headlines Tuesday and Wednesday nights, as widespread lows around
freezing are possible away from the coast.

2) There is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday
and Wednesday for areas that received little rainfall yesterday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures will trend near or slightly below
average through mid week. There is potential for frost/freeze
headlines Tuesday and Wednesday nights, as widespread lows around
freezing are possible away from the coast.

As of early this morning, the cold front has moved through the local
area with current temperatures in the upper 40s NW to upper 50s SE.
Temperatures over the next couple of days will be near to below
normal, as a secondary (but dry) cold front drops south through the
area Tuesday, providing an additional shot of CAA, and high pressure
builds in to the north. High temperatures today will be in the mid
60s inland and lower 60s near the coast. With the front Tuesday,
temperatures will have a bit of a larger gradient with highs in the
upper 50s on the Eastern Shore and far northern portions of the area
to mid to upper 60s to the southern portions. Both Tuesday and
Wednesday nights will have the potential for frost or freeze
headlines for areas where the growing season has begun. For
reference, the growing season has started 4/1 for all but the far NW
counties, which start 4/11. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to
have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around
freezing possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont.
This will depend on how much boundary layer decoupling occurs, which
will be primarily affected by how far south the high builds.
Temperatures gradually moderate back to near seasonal averages late
in the week while dry conditions persist.


KEY MESSAGE 2...There is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday
and Wednesday for areas that received little rainfall yesterday.

With the additional cold front Tuesday and high pressure building
over the area this week, there is potential for heightened fire
weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday, as dewpoints drop
significantly and minimum RH values reach the low 20 to mid 30s for
portions of the area. However, winds are not expected to be more
than 15-20 mph early this week. Rainfall totals yesterday for areas
from the Middle Peninsula W through the southside RIC
metro/Chesterfield/Tri-Cities SW through the I-85 corridor were not
impressive, generally measuring around 0.1" or less. Farther E,
rainfall totals of 0.5-1.0" were observed widespread with localized
areas up to 2.0-3.0". Luckily, the areas in the SE that were under a
moderate to severe drought were able to see the highest rainfall
amounts. However, areas further inland and near the piedmont
received little rain and are generally under a moderate drought.
This with the lower RH values may cause heightened fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are expected for the 06z/06 TAF period
as the rain showers have moved east of all major terminals and the
associated cold front has crossed the local area. Winds have shifted
to be N/NW behind the front around 10 kt. The southeastern terminals
(PHF/ORF/ECG) will remain gusty for a few more hours this morning
with gusts up to 20 kt. Winds will then shift out of the W this
afternoon to S/SW this evening around 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions prevail Monday night through Friday.
A secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 710 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect for all waters through Monday morning.

- Strong high pressure building in behind another cold front
  will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

Light S winds early this evening will quickly turn to the N and
increase late this evening and early Monday morning behind a
cold front. Wind speeds will reach 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30
kt for all waters early Monday morning. These elevated wind
speeds will not last long (~6-8 hrs), but given the decent
pressure rises behind the front, should see all waters reach SCA
criteria. Therefore, have added all the tidal rivers and the
Currituck Sound to the SCA. Waves 3-4 ft on the Bay and 4-5 feet
on the coastal waters.

Winds quickly drop off after 7 AM Monday as transient high
pressure slides in overhead. Becoming breezy as winds turn back
to the SSW Monday evening ahead of another (dry) cold front
early Tuesday morning, then breezy out of the north behind it
Tues. An extra push of CAA and pressure rises are expected as
strong high pressure settles into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. NE winds during this period are forecast to increase
back to SCA levels for at least the southern coastal waters and
lower Ches. Bay. The onshore surge should also build seas to at
least 5ft for the southern waters as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631-633-635>638-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-
     634-656-658.

&&

$$