Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 3:12 AM

AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
307 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A cold front currently draped over the panhandle will continue to
slowly move southeast over the area today before stalling over south
Florida Tuesday. Deep moisture will accompany the front as it
lingers, increasing rain chances through most of the week,
especially for central FL and the East Coast. WPC has placed inland
portions of the forecast area in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for
excessive rainfall. The risk highlights the potential for heavy
downpours that could lead to localized flooding. Along with
increased rain chances, cooler temperatures will also be expected.
High temperatures are expected to drop a couple degrees below normal
for a few days to start the week, with some areas staying in the 70s
through Thursday.

As the cold front stalls over south Florida, a high pressure system
to the north will lead to the pressure gradient tightening up over
the FL peninsula midweek. This will lead to strong, gusty northeast
wind. The gradient will ease up as the weekend approaches. Rain
chances begin to diminish into the weekend as well as dry air moves
over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions mostly prevail through into early morning. However,
some early morning patchy fog could develop, especially inland.
Though confidence was too low to include mention in the TAFs. A cold
front will begin to move over the area today into tomorrow, bringing
possible low (MVFR-IFR) ceilings and visibilities as showers and
storms move through. Behind the front, winds will increase and
shift more northeasterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as the week goes
on as a cold front moves over the area and lingers for a few days.
Between this cold front stalling out to the south and a high
pressure system over the NE, a tight pressure gradient will lead
to advisory level, if not Gale force, winds over the water
beginning Tuesday and persisting through Thursday. Showers and
storms will also be possible over the waters to today and
tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Ample moisture will linger over the area through the week as a cold
front moves over the area and stalls out over south Florida. Gusty
winds will lead to high dispersion values throughout the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  65  75  66 /  40  70  60  20
FMY  86  67  81  66 /  50  60  70  30
GIF  85  65  75  65 /  80  70  70  30
SRQ  85  66  78  65 /  40  70  60  30
BKV  86  59  74  60 /  50  70  60  20
SPG  85  68  78  68 /  40  70  60  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$