Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 6:27 AM

AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
613 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the routine 12Z TAF issuance.
Potential Gale conditions midweek, especially from Cape Fear
southward.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Temperatures near or a few degrees below normal today
  through Thursday. Frost/freeze conditions are not expected.

- 2) Potential extended play of SCA conditions Tuesday evening
  thru Friday night. Possible Gale force wind gusts south of
  Cape Fear Tuesday night thru Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures near or a few degrees below
normal Monday through Thursday. No frost/freeze expected at
this time.

Cold air advection will keep temperatures slightly below normal
today. Thick cirrus along the southeastern Atlantic coast could
prevent those early April sun angles from scraping a few extra
degrees of warmth. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s. If
clouds persist for a large portion of the day, highs could stay
in the mid 60s.

The cool advection will weaken on Tuesday and allow temps to
climb to the lower 70s, however enhanced NE flow will develop
Wednesday as a wedge of high pressure briefly builds across the
interior Carolinas. This will keep Wednesday highs in the mid
60s most areas. Enough of a pressure gradient should be in place
to maintain a breeze during the overnights, keeping lows from
dipping below 40.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential extended play of SCA conditions
Tuesday evening thru Friday night. Possible Gale force wind
gusts south of Cape Fear Tuesday night thru Wednesday night.

See the Marine section...Tuesday through Friday Night.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR has been established across the region as northerly winds
turn toward the northeast this morning. Winds will be gusty this
morning and could be variable near the coast where NE winds are
favored, but some marine influence could impact wind direction
slightly.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR conditions expected through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday... A cold front will sink south of the area this
morning. The surge of winds following the front will bring a
period of SCA conditions, both with gusts to 25 knots and seas
in excess of 6 feet. Conditions should improve by early this
afternoon. SCA remains in effect until noon. High pressure
offshore will maintain northeasterly flow around 10-15 knots
tonight. Winds will begin to increase late tonight into Tuesday.
Seas maintain an unsettled 3-4 feet this afternoon through
early Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday Night...Secondary dry CFP occurs Tue
morning. Strong high pressure will follow and ridge across the
area from the Great Lakes during Tue. SCA conditions will
develop by late Tue aftn as the highs 1035-1040mb center moves
to the NE States by late Tue night and basically ridges/wedges
across the Carolinas thru Thu night. The sfc pg will further
tighten during this time-line with strong SCA conditions Tue
night. Guidance suggests, Gale conditions may materialize from
Cape Fear southward as Gusts in excess of 35 kt potentially
becomes more frequent especially across waters with SSTs having
pushed hier given last weeks worth of persistent onshore SE-S
winds. The Gale conditions could potentially last thru Wed
night. Models keep the baroclinic zone well east thru south of
the local waters and therefore pcpn not a player. However, there
are hints of an inverted sfc trof developing by mid-week off
the Carolina Coasts but models not consistent with 1 another for
this occurring. The wedge breaks down during Fri as the highs
center pushes off the NE states coast and offshore. Winds will
drop below SCA thresholds by early Fri, HOWEVER, given the large
NE-E fetch for much of this work week, seas will remain
elevated AOA SCA thresholds for the majority of this period, ie.
beginning late Tue and continuing into Fri night. Double digit
seas are not out of the question given the excellent long fetch
and the longevity of these conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
After repeated arctic outbreaks in January and February, local
year-to-date temperature anomalies on February 10 were as much
as 5 degrees below normal. Recent very warm temperatures in
March and now continuing into April have erased virtually all of
this anomalous cold. YTD temperature anomalies through April 3
are now +0.3 degrees in Wilmington, +0.1 degrees in North Myrtle
Beach and Lumberton, but still -0.2 degrees in Florence.

CPC outlooks across the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-4 week
timeframes all show an enhanced potential for above normal
temperatures across the Carolinas, implying local cities should
have growing positive YTD temperature anomalies by the end of
the month.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$