Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 6:39 AM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
636 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- A critical combination of wind, low humidity, and dry fuels is
  forecast on Tuesday, mainly over part of southwest Georgia and
  the eastern Florida Panhandle. Any outdoor burning is highly
  discouraged.

- Strong easterly winds are expected from Tuesday through
  Thursday, with the strongest wind most likely coming on
  Wednesday. On the Gulf, there is a medium chance (60 percent)
  of eventually needing a Gale Warning. On land, wind gusts of
  35-40 mph may eventually necessitate a Wind Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A cold front has moved south into the Gulf. Above the shallow cool
air, there is still plenty of southwest flow aloft for now.
Guidance shows areas of light rain blossoming this morning, mainly
over the Florida Big Bend and far south Georgia. Rainfall amounts
will generally amount to 1/4 inch or less. Even where there is no
rain, thick cloud cover today will help to keep temperatures on
the cool side, with highs mainly in the 65-70 degree range. Then
tonight, dry low-level northeast flow will deepen, and upper
support will exit off to the east. Light rain will end, and skies
will start to clear out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The big story will be a prolonged period of windy weather, lasting
from Tuesday through at least Friday. Wednesday will be the windiest
day.

The low-latitude subtropical jet stream is currently expanding from
northern Mexico across the Gulf. In response, surface pressures will
lower by about 5 mb near the south tip of Florida tonight and
Tuesday. Concurrently, strong continental high pressure over the
Great Lakes will bridge south across the Southeast U.S.. Between
these two features, pressure gradients will tighten impressively.
For example at sunrise Wednesday, the MSLP difference between
Charlotte, NC, and Tampa, FL, will be around 16-18 mb. In response,
easterly 925 mb wind speeds are forecast to reach the 40-45 knot
range. This would readily support surface wind gusts of 40+ mph
during daytime thermal mixing. In addition, multiple pieces of MOS
guidance are forecasting sustained winds 20+ kt (23+ mph) at airport
sites such as Tallahassee, Apalachicola, Marianna, Bainbridge,
Albany, and Valdosta. Probabilistic EPS guidance even shows a 90th
percentile sustained speeds of 23-29 knots at these same sites.
Unless these forecast signals were to fade, we would be facing an
eventual Wind Advisory on or around Wednesday.

Starting Friday, lower pressure over South Florida will start to
eject out through the Bahamas and in the direction of Bermuda. This
will start to loosen the pressure gradient, while causing winds to
back around more northeasterly. 500 mb ridging will amplify and
strengthen from the Middle Gulf to the Carolinas from Friday through
Sunday, capping the atmosphere while raising temperatures back above
normal.

Other than wind, the low rain chances (20-40 percent) will
develop on Wednesday and Thursday. 1000-700 mb flow will be most
directly eastward during that time (as opposed to northeastward),
which will push PW values over 1 inch. In addition, upper
diffluence and broad lift will increase in advance of the final
southern stream shortwave. The strong low-level easterly flow
should provide plenty of fast-moving speed surges and associated
speed convergence as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Scattered light showers around the ECP, TLH, and VLD terminals
this morning. Expect on and off showers through the day today.
MVFR cigs are possible later this morning into the afternoon for
TLH and VLD terminals as cigs lower, and vsbys may come down in
potential heavier showers. Winds will be north becoming
northeasterly in the afternoon. ECP, DHN, and ABY terminals may
have occasional wind gusts up to 20 kts through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The week ahead will be rough on the waters. The entire work week
will feature strong to gale-force northeast to east winds.

Strong northerly breezes early this morning west of Apalachicola
will clock northeasterly this afternoon, with strong breezes
expanding across the rest of the northeast Gulf in response to
lowering pressure over South Florida. Strong continental high
pressure will bridge south across the waters on Tuesday and
Wednesday, setting up near-gale and gale-force easterlies. Low
pressure over South Florida will finally eject east across the
Bahamas and into the Atlantic on Friday, causing winds to back
around northeasterly and slowly trend down below Small Craft
strength.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The big story this week will be repeated days of strong northeast
to east winds from Tuesday through at least the end of the work
week. At first on Tuesday, the influx of dry air over our Georgia
and Alabama districts is likely to create a critical combination
of wind and low humidity. The strongest winds this week will come
on Wednesday, when many districts will experience wind gusts near
40 mph, but a a clocking of winds from northeast to east will help
raise humidity above critical thresholds. Winds will start to
slowly trend downward on Friday, just in time for the return of
above normal temperatures. With such strong winds this week,
widespread high dispersion values are a foregone conclusion from
Tuesday through next weekend.

Otherwise, patchy fog is expected early this morning near the
northern Nature coast and the Lower Suwannee.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Flooding is not expected for at least the next 7 days. Where rain
occurs this week, it will not by hydrologically significant.
Neither will it be enough to help with the drought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  54  77  56 /  70  30  10  10
Panama City   68  55  78  57 /  50  20  10  10
Dothan        66  49  75  52 /  20   0   0  10
Albany        68  51  76  52 /  20   0   0  10
Valdosta      69  54  76  55 /  60  20  10  10
Cross City    77  54  74  58 /  60  70  30  10
Apalachicola  67  57  74  60 /  80  40  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for FLZ008>014-016-017-027-112-326-426.

GA...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for GAZ125-127>131-143>148-155>161.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to
     noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-752-755-765-772-
     775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ751-770.

&&

$$