Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 7:24 AM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
623 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Key Messages:

 * Light rain continues today, with rain chances decreasing by
   Monday afternoon.

 * Low (10-20%) daily rain chances will be likely Tuesday night
   through Wednesday.

 * An upper level disturbance will bring a 30-50% chance for
   showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

 * A High Risk of Rip Currents will continue through Tuesday
   morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Light rain will likely continue tonight with rain chances
diminishing through the day Monday. Predominately zonal upper-
level flow across South Texas looks to setup Monday afternoon and
remain in place through mid-week. A few weak mid- level shortwaves
and low level moisture advection will likely support limited rain
chances around 10-20% through Wednesday. A stronger upper-level
shortwave looks to move through the area Thursday into Friday.
Increased forcing with this pattern will likely destabilize the
atmosphere, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to
around 30-50%.

Temperatures are forecast to gradually warm through the week as
cloud cover decreases Monday afternoon and winds shift easterly to
southeasterly Tuesday. High temperatures Monday will likely range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with highs increasing to the low to
mid 80s by Wednesday. Likewise, low temperatures will likely range
from the mid to upper 50s tonight, increasing to the mid to upper
60s by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

MVFR cigs and light showers continue this morning at BRO and HRL.
Brief MVFR is possible at MFE this morning under a stray shower.
Ceilings begin to lift and return to VFR this afternoon for all
sites as rain chances decrease with showers moving offshore.
Northerly winds become gusty around 20kts this afternoon,
shifting northeasterly and diminishing overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

UPDATE 0621 AM CDT...The Small Craft Advisory for the 20-60nm
Gulf waters has been extended through 7 PM CDT Monday, April 6.
(69-HK)

PREV DISCUSSION...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1 PM
Monday for the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. Strong northerly
winds will likely begin to decrease in intensity late Monday
morning, allowing seas to gradually improve through the afternoon.
The Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended or replaced with
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines depending on how
quickly seas improve.

Winds will likely shift to the east to southeast Monday night into
Tuesday, with generally favorable winds and seas likely to persist
through the remainder of the forecast. Rain chances between 20-40%
will likely persist through much of the week over the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             72  57  78  66 /  30  10  10  30
HARLINGEN               73  54  79  62 /  20   0  10  20
MCALLEN                 75  58  81  66 /  20   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  53  81  63 /  10   0  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      70  66  75  70 /  40  10  20  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  59  78  66 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$