Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 11:09 AM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1057 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to gentle easterly breezes are expected through Tuesday to
  Tuesday night. Passing showers are possible, but significant
  rainfall is not likely through tonight.

- There is high confidence for a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms mid week, but confidence in the wind forecast is
  low.

- Breezy conditions may be able to return late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
It feels closer to summertime outside the front door this morning!
Temperatures are currently near 80F with dew points in the lower
70s. Our KBYX radar has been busy detecting disorganized showers
across the forecast area. SPC Mesoanalysis is highlighting an area
of low level convergence across the area, so this is likely the
culprit of the ongoing activity. The 12Z KKEY sounding from this
morning shows a very moist profile through 800mb, so there should
be enough moisture to encourage these showers to continue into
this afternoon. A stark layer of dry air aloft suggests that we
may not be able to get enough vertical growth for thunderstorms,
but this is Florida. We`ll go ahead and say that the chance for
any lightning is very, very slim, but not zero.

To our north, a frontal boundary is notated somewhere across the
northern portion of the peninsula of Florida, but there has not be
much in the way of forward movement. This is the only notable
feature that would cause a change in our sensible weather, so it
will have to be monitored closely. Since it is still so removed
from our area, no changes to the forecast are needed for this
morning update as there is plenty of time before we see the
consequences of this front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Later this week, the environment becomes much more complicated. A
high pressure system descending out of central Canada into the
Northern Plains will be sufficient to force a frontal boundary
towards South Florida by tomorrow morning. The uncertainties
revolve around where, exactly, the front stalls. Recent
statistical models suggests the front will stall further north.
This scenario places a general warm sector environment directly
over the Florida Keys for most of the week. These conditions could
start as soon as early Tuesday morning when moisture replaces the
drier air aloft.

In contrast to the precipitation forecast, there is low confidence
in the wind forecast later in the week. The strength of easterly
breezes across the Keys depends on where and when the frontal
boundary stalls. The difference between the 10th and 90th
percentile wind speeds over the island chain on Wednesday is
almost 13 mph. The current consensus favors light to gentle
breezes as the frontal boundary approaches the Keys, gentle to
moderate breezes after the boundary stalls, and then freshening
to moderate to fresh breezes late in the week after the Atlantic
High rebuilds enough to force the boundary south of the Keys. The
pattern is complex, and it will not be a shock if the wind
forecast changes by tomorrow morning. However, the prolonged
period of moisture will be much appreciated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, light to gentle winds
across all local waters will persist through Tuesday to Tuesday
night. A high pressure system building over the Northern Plains
early this week will be sufficient to force a frontal boundary
south towards the Florida Keys. There is high confidence that the
environment will favor widespread showers and a chance of
thunderstorms midweek. However, whether gentle or fresh to strong
breezes are observed over the Keys waters before the weekend
depends on where the frontal boundary moves. The current forecast
places more confidence on the front stalling north of the our
local Gulf waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF
period, but spotty light showers may lead to short lived MVFR CIGs
when passing over either site. Any reduced categories should
resolve quickly as these showers are disorganized and
isolated. Opting to keep TAFs dry due to the sporadic nature of
these showers. East to southeast surface winds will remain light
to gentle at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  72  81  69 /  20  30  40  40
Marathon  82  72  80  70 /  20  40  50  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$