Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 1:24 PM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Key Messages:

 * Cooler temperatures will persist through tomorrow before a
   gradual warming trend commences through the week.

 * A series of mini shortwave disturbances will impact the region
   starting on Wednesday, creating a low to moderate (30-50%)
   chance of showers each day through Saturday.

 * A High Risk of Rip Currents will continue through tomorrow morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Overall zonal flow is expected over this next week as the recent
system that brought a cold front over the weekend continues to move
to the east. Precipitation chances are very low tomorrow as a
result, but a series of small mid-level mini shortwave
disturbances are expected to move through the region starting on
Wednesday which will result in increased instability and a low to
medium chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Early
CAM guidance suggests that it will be mostly showery convection
and more isolated than widespread, with a low 20-30% chance on
Wednesday. However, a thunderstorm or two is still possible, and
the Storm Prediction Center does include Deep South Texas under a
general thunderstorm risk for Wednesday. Nothing severe is
expected, though.

The strongest shortwaves are expected on Thursday and Friday, which
will produce the best rain chances of the week.  Guidance has
trended upwards on likelihood, increasing it from a 30-50% chance to
a 40-50% chance for both afternoons. Again, early CAM reflectivity
simulations seem to indicate mostly isolated light shower
activity, but a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Chances
lower back to 30% on Saturday as the strongest of the mini-
shortwaves move away from the area. Conditions should be dry
again Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures should remain below normal for the next few days as
northerly winds persist and cooler air from the last frontal system
remains in place. By mid-week, winds will veer back to the southeast
and temperatures are expected to warm to normal levels in the mid-
80s and then continue warming to slightly above normal (upper
80s/lower 90s) through the weekend. A sizable Pacific trough is
expected to move across the South Central plains early next week,
and will increase wind speeds early next week as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of the approaching system.

There is a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at area
beaches tonight, and a moderate risk tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Conditions have improved to VFR at all airports and are expected
to remain VFR through the TAF period as skies begin to clear.
Winds will remain light to moderate and northerly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Outer (20-60 nm)
Gulf Waters until 7 PM CDT this evening.  SCEC conditions should
persist through this evening for the Bay and the Nearshore waters.
Conditions will then improve to favorable tonight through the
weekend. SCEC conditions are possible again by the end of the
weekend as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching
Pacific through from the West.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             57  78  66  82 /   0  10  30  30
HARLINGEN               54  79  62  83 /   0  10  20  20
MCALLEN                 58  81  66  86 /   0  10  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         53  81  63  85 /   0   0  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      66  75  70  77 /   0  10  30  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     59  78  66  82 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$