Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 1:24 PM

AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

 - Strong marine winds will remain at advisory-level through early
   Monday near the coast and persist through tonight over the
   offshore Gulf waters. Additional rounds rounds of advisory-
   level conditions with gusts near gale-force are likely this
   week as winds turn easterly.

 - The rip current risk increases to HIGH by mid-week. High surf
   with breaking waves of 5-8 feet are likely Wednesday and
   Thursday with the potential for minor coastal inundation.

 - Fire weather concerns are possible on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Well the little bit of rain we got yesterday was a brief reprieve
from the ongoing drought; however, looking ahead we will be
returning to yet another drier pattern this week. The upper trough
that brought storms and a cold front has now lifted off to our
northwest and its associated cold front has come to a crawl across
our marine waters. This boundary is expected to just sit offshore
over the next few days as a couple weak shortwaves move through the
flow. With the front sitting just offshore, showers and a few storms
may encroach upon the immediate coastline through midweek as each of
these shortwaves zips by. The strongest of these waves will arrive
on Wednesday into Thursday brining the chance for some light
overrunning rain to the area. However, moisture quality will likely
be limited and the best chance for any appreciable rain will likely
be along the immediate coastline. Once we get past midweek, High p
pressure will quickly build into the area by the weekend leading to
dry conditions as temperatures warm back into the mid 80s.

Coastal Hazards... One thing to watch throughout the week will be
the potential for some coastal hazards including increasing rip
currents and high surf. Minor coastal runup will also be possible
as winds increase over the open Gulf waters this week. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region through Tuesday.
Winds will remain generally out of the north-northeast to
northeast at around 10 knots gusting to 20 knots during the day
today and again Tuesday. Winds relax somewhat to 5 to 10 knots
overnight. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Strong northerly winds will persist tonight behind a cold
front passing through the area. This strong offshore flow will then
temporarily decrease and turn easterly by Tuesday afternoon before
increasing once again late Tuesday night. Moderate to strong
easterly winds will persist through Friday, and we expect another
round of small craft advisory-level conditions with the potential of
gusts nearing gale force during this time. BB-8

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

We are keeping a close eye on Tuesday for the potential for
some dangerous burning conditions. Gusty easterly winds coupled with
dry antecedent drought conditions will support some potential for
heighten fire danger on Tuesday. Relative humidity values are
expected to drop to around 30% or just above critical thresholds but
given the soil moistures and gustier winds we might just be close
enough to support fire weather products on Tuesday. We will have to
keep an eye on conditions over the next few forecasts. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      49  77  55  74 /   0   0   0  20
Pensacola   54  76  59  73 /   0   0  10  20
Destin      55  75  58  73 /  10   0  10  20
Evergreen   45  77  49  74 /   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  46  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
Camden      45  75  50  73 /   0   0   0  10
Crestview   47  77  50  75 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$