Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 1:27 PM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
121 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated TAF discussion.

- Extended SCAs in the Bay, northern coastal waters, and the
  Currituck sound through 14Z/10 am this morning. (SCAs have
  been cancelled elsewhere).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will trend near or slightly below
average through mid week. There is potential for frost/freeze
headlines Tuesday and Wednesday nights, as widespread lows around
freezing are possible away from the coast.

2) There is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday
and Wednesday for areas that received little rainfall yesterday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures will trend near or slightly below
average through mid week. There is potential for frost/freeze
headlines Tuesday and Wednesday nights, as widespread lows around
freezing are possible away from the coast.

As of early this morning, the cold front has moved through the local
area with current temperatures in the upper 40s NW to upper 50s SE.
Temperatures over the next couple of days will be near to below
normal, as a secondary (but dry) cold front drops south through the
area Tuesday, providing an additional shot of CAA, and high pressure
builds in to the north. High temperatures today will be in the mid
60s inland and lower 60s near the coast. With the front Tuesday,
temperatures will have a bit of a larger gradient with highs in the
upper 50s on the Eastern Shore and far northern portions of the area
to mid to upper 60s to the southern portions. Both Tuesday and
Wednesday nights will have the potential for frost or freeze
headlines for areas where the growing season has begun. For
reference, the growing season has started 4/1 for all but the far NW
counties, which start 4/11. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to
have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around
freezing possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont.
This will depend on how much boundary layer decoupling occurs, which
will be primarily affected by how far south the high builds.
Temperatures gradually moderate back to near seasonal averages late
in the week while dry conditions persist.


KEY MESSAGE 2...There is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday
and Wednesday for areas that received little rainfall yesterday.

With the additional cold front Tuesday and high pressure building
over the area this week, there is potential for heightened fire
weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday, as dewpoints drop
significantly and minimum RH values reach the low 20 to mid 30s for
portions of the area. However, winds are not expected to be more
than 15-20 mph early this week. Rainfall totals yesterday for areas
from the Middle Peninsula W through the southside RIC
metro/Chesterfield/Tri-Cities SW through the I-85 corridor were not
impressive, generally measuring around 0.1" or less. Farther E,
rainfall totals of 0.5-1.0" were observed widespread with localized
areas up to 2.0-3.0". Luckily, the areas in the SE that were under a
moderate to severe drought were able to see the highest rainfall
amounts. However, areas further inland and near the piedmont
received little rain and are generally under a moderate drought.
This with the lower RH values may cause heightened fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/06 TAF period. A dry cold
front crossing over the area will bring increased, high level
cloud cover overnight. Then, skies clear out tomorrow from NW to
SE as strong high pressure builds in. Wind direction will be
variable the rest of today and overnight due to the frontal
passage. Breezy NW winds of 10-15kt expected behind the front
tomorrow.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions prevail through Friday. A
secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 655 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have been dropped for all of the rivers, but remain in
  effect through 10 AM elsewhere.

- Strong high pressure building in behind another cold front
  will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night
  through Wednesday, with elevated seas lingering on the ocean
  through Friday.

Elevated N-NW winds prevail early this morning in the wake of
the cold front that has pushed S of the region. Waves average 2-4
ft on the Bay and 3-5 feet on the coastal waters. Winds have
already started to drop off on rivers, so have ended the SCAs
there with the exception of the lower James.

Winds quickly drop off through 10 AM this morning, as transient
high pressure slides in overhead. Light flow this aftn will be
conducive to onshore flow (winds becoming E-SE into the lower
Bay and ocean). Winds then become southerly and increase to
10-15 kt this evening ahead of another (dry) cold front into
early Tuesday morning, shifting to the N-NW behind it Tuesday.
The best push of CAA and pressure rises will be later in the
day, and especially Tuesday night as strong high pressure builds
from the Great Lakes into NY/PA. NE winds during this period
are forecast to increase back to SCA levels for most of the
area, highest across the lower portions of the Bay and the
southern coastal waters. After that, the high is forecast to be
nearly 1040 mb and become anchored from southern New England
into the northern mid- Atlantic region. This setup leads to a
long fetch of NE wind and the models are often underdone with
wind and waves. The onshore surge should build seas to 5-7 ft
(potentially higher) for the NC and southern VA ocean zones
where SCAs are likely to persist through at least Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$