Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 1:48 PM

AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
140 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

    - Dangerous Rip Currents and hazardous marine conditions once
      again late Tuesday through the middle of the week.

    - Localized flooding possible along the east coast Tuesday
      and especially Wednesday.

    - Strong winds expected across the east coast beginning on
      Tuesday and peaking through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Upper level water vapor imagery shows that the cold front
associated with the northern stream trough over the Great Lakes is
currently pushing across the Deep South and into northwest
Florida. The front will continue to creep southward into central
Florida on Monday, beginning to shift winds north and introduce
increased cloud cover and shower activity across the state.
However, hi-res guidance is starting to zero in on the front
stalling somewhere near Lake Okeechobee on Tuesday. Therefore,
the weather pattern for Monday in South Florida will still be
dominated by moist easterly flow at the surface and weakening
ridge to the east. The peninsula will continue to be entrenched by
a deep slug of moisture, with PWATs once again in the 1.4 to 1.5
inch range for the afternoon. So similar to the last few days,
easterly flow will push some scattered shower activity across the
Atlantic coast during the morning and early afternoon, before most
convective activity once again begins to focus along the Gulf
Breeze in southwest and interior portions of South Florida. But
unlike the last few days, easterly flow will be a little bit
weaker, so hi-res guidance such as the HRRR and RRFS are hinting
at the Gulf breeze pushing a little bit further inland. As a
result, there is increased confidence that stronger thunderstorms
may initiate over the Everglades, including interior parts of
Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties. HREF ensemble guidance
still shows that most rainfall activity will focus along the
western counties of Monroe, Collier, Hendry and Glades, where 1 to
2 inches of rain and frequent lightning will be likely with each
storm.

By the time Tuesday rolls around, a secondary southern stream
shortwave perturbation traverses across northern Florida, bringing
along another lobe of vorticity that looks to invigorate shower
activity across the region. WPC has highlighted a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall across the Atlantic coast of Florida for Tuesday
through Wednesday, with localized urban flooding being the main
concern. Increasing pressure gradients along the eastern seaboard
will allow for wind speeds begin to pick up from the northeast
behind the decaying frontal boundary. Much of the shower activity
will set up along the stalled frontal boundary in central Florida,
but the main forcing for showers and storms looks to be from coastal
convergence from easterly flow over the Gulf Stream. As the mid-
level shortwave pushes east on Tuesday night, diffluent flow aloft
could provide further ascent for shower activity. Guidance is also
indicating that an inverted trough just off the coast could aid in
sustaining storms with further convergence.

There is still some spread among ensemble clusters on where the
heaviest rainfall for the Tuesday through Wednesday period may fall,
so exact amounts are still uncertain. In fact, guidance seems to
have shifted the heavy rainfall threat a little bit further south,
showing that coastal Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach could get 1.5 to
2.5 inches. As for the worst case scenario (90th percentile), it is
still holding steady at around 3 to 4 inches. But one cluster of
ensembles (20% of members) has heavier rain focusing along the
stalled boundary in central Florida where up to 5 inches may be
possible. Given this guidance, there is increased confidence that
the flood threat should be localized to urban centers near the
Atlantic coast and impacts should be isolated to scattered since
maximum rainfall amounts are not all too concerning.

Due to increased cloud cover and shower activity on Tuesday,
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler across the region, with
highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A troughing pattern will remain over the Florida peninsula through
the middle of the week, pushing the decaying frontal boundary a
little bit further south into South Florida. Guidance continues to
show a post-frontal 1038-1040 mb surface high building over the mid-
Atlantic states, which will help strengthen a pressure gradient
along the eastern seaboard and usher in some stronger northeast
winds across the region. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
wind speeds over the Atlantic waters will be increasing up to around
30 kts, while wind speeds over land look to be around 15 kts. There
still remains a low chance for gale force winds across the Atlantic,
but it depends on if the surface trough over the Gulf stream sets up
a little bit further south, allowing the stronger northerly winds to
push deeper into South Florida. For now, NBM probs are only showing
about a 40 % chance of wind speeds exceeding 30 kts for the northern
waters near Palm Beach. Inland, gusts up to 25 kts would be
possible, creating nuisance crosswinds and blowing about loose
objects.

Ensemble QPF clusters show a slightly greater signal for heavy
rainfall for South Florida for Wednesday compared to Tuesday. PWATS
for Wednesday could climb up to 1.8 inches, which would be within
the 90th percentile for this time of year according to local
sounding climatology. Precipitation for Wednesday looks to be even
more focused along coastal convergence, which is why another 1.5 to
2.5 inches of rainfall is possible along coastal Dade, Broward and
Palm Beach counties. One interesting trend among recent ensemble
guidance is showing increased QPF along southern Dade County. Higher
end scenarios depict some locally heavier amounts of 4 to 5 inches
over parts of the southern metro. Localized urban flooding will
once again be a concern, especially given the antecedent rainfall
from the previous day which could put a stress on roadway drainage
systems.

Ensemble guidance begins to show a downtrend in precipitation for
Thursday, but persistent onshore easterly flow and above average
PWATS for this time of year will still allow for scattered showers
to develop across the Gulf stream and spread inland over the
Peninsula. Rain amounts for Thursday look to be more in the 0.5 to 1
inch range for most Atlantic coast locations. Towards the end of the
week, a mid-level ridge will begin to build over the Gulf and up
towards the eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure will begin to
strengthen in north Florida, and drier air will begin to enter the
region. This looks to decrease rain chances and increase
temperatures back into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the east coast terminals
through the evening hours. Easterly winds around 10 kts will
continue through the evening hours before becoming light and
variable overnight. At KAPF, WNW winds around 10 kts will remain
in place through the evening hours. Scattered showers and storms
will be possible near KAPF this afternoon into this evening.
Chances of showers and storms increase area wide beginning early
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A weakening pressure gradient will give way to a lighter easterly
breeze on Monday. Tuesday will be a transition day back to a
fresh/strong breeze as a strong area of high pressure builds down
the Eastern Seaboard and the Florida Peninsula. Expect periods of
moderate to heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds (both coasts)
and seas (east coast) will remain elevated through the entire week
as strong high pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Tuesday night through
Wednesday for the Atlantic waters where wave heights may be as
high as 11 feet and winds around 30 kts. There is a low chance
fore gale force winds for the waters offshore of Palm Beach, but
guidance is currently showing only a 40% chance of winds exceeding
30kts.

Conditions looks a little less over the Gulf waters, with winds
around 25 kts and lesser waves, but another Advisory will likely
be needed there too.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Weaker easterly winds today will decrease the Rip Current threat
through Tuesday morning to below moderate. The threat will
drastically increase by mid week as onshore flow further increases
in response to high pressure spreading down the Peninsula. In
addition to rips, surf heights will build on Tuesday across the
Palm beaches and peak along the entire east coast on Wednesday,
with peak breakers between 7-10 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  79  69  78 /  60  90  60  80
West Kendall     67  81  66  80 /  60  80  50  80
Opa-Locka        69  80  68  79 /  60  90  60  90
Homestead        70  81  69  80 /  50  80  50  80
Fort Lauderdale  69  78  69  77 /  60  90  60  90
N Ft Lauderdale  69  77  68  77 /  60  90  70  90
Pembroke Pines   70  81  69  80 /  60  90  60  90
West Palm Beach  68  77  68  75 /  70  90  70  90
Boca Raton       69  78  68  77 /  60  90  70  90
Naples           67  82  66  82 /  60  70  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ651-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$