Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 1:54 PM

AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
144 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A slow moving cold front is pushing through North Florida this
morning. As the boundary approaches the moisture has been increasing
with our morning sounding showing PWs is now around 1.4. This will
allow for an increased chance for afternoon and evening seabreeze
thunderstorms mainly in the interior portions of the CWA today.

As we get into the overnight period the front will stall over the
area and remain there until Thursday. This will bring cloudy and
windy conditions through Thursday with gust up to 25 mph. We will
also see high shower chances during this period however this does
not mean we will be seeing high rainfall totals. Showers will be
spotty through the 72 hour period with most of it being light rain
with totals around 0.5 to 1 inches over the three days. The
overcast skies will also keep temperatures below average with
highs in the 70s each day.

The front will dissipate Thursday night allow clearer skies and
calmer winds to return. We will also transition into a drier
weather pattern with only isolated rain showers chances from
Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will also be on the rise
with widespread mid 80`s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A stalled out front will make for some messy weather over the
state through the TAF period. Best chance of storms this afternoon
and evening will be inland and across SW Florida however they will
be possible at all terminals. Models continue to show a batch of
MVFR and IFR CIGS and showers pushing through during the early
morning hours on Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
Winds will be increasing through the afternoon and evening hours
out of the northeast as a slow moving cold front starts to push
through. This front will be stalling over Central Florida from
Tuesday through Thursday. During this time period we will see
gusty winds around 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30 knots. We
will also see spotty light showers. The front will start to
dissipate on Friday. As it does so winds will slowly start to
drop to around 10 to 15 knots by Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A front will stall over the area overnight. This will bring
breezy and humid conditions with spotty light showers through
Thursday. By Friday this front will dissipate as drier air
filters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  66  76  65 /  40  70  70  30
FMY  87  68  81  67 /  60  60  70  40
GIF  86  66  75  65 /  80  80  70  40
SRQ  85  66  76  65 /  30  70  70  30
BKV  86  60  73  60 /  60  80  60  30
SPG  85  70  77  69 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday
     for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$