Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 1:54 PM

AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
152 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have ended small craft advisories across the Alligator River,
Albemarle, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds, and the coastal waters from
Duck down to Oregon Inlet given latest trends in observations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The cold front is moving offshore and is taking the remaining
showers and thunderstorms with it.

2) Prolonged period of below normal temperatures expected behind the
front well into next week.

Marine...Small Craft conditions are expected to continue into
this evening. A prolonged period of poor marine conditions is
expected to develop Tuesday night and last into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The cold front is moving offshore and is taking
the remaining showers and thunderstorms with it. A surge of
northerly winds behind the front will continue to gust for the
next couple of hours but will diminish as we approach sunrise.
With this CAA, temperatures are expected to fall into the upper
40s inland and low 50s at the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler high pressure will build in today,
resulting in much cooler highs to kick off the new week (mid to
upper 60s inland/upper 50s to low 60s beaches). A quick,
moisture-starved reinforcing cold front will then move across
the area on Tuesday. Although no rain is expected with this
FROPA, the post-frontal air mass will bring the coolest high
temperatures of the week on Wednesday (low 60s). We`ll moderate
thereafter and be back to low 80s inland/upper 60s beaches by
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High clouds across rtes through the TAF period. NNW winds
becoming light and variable as high pressure becomes centered
over the area. The probability for impactful fog tonight is
less than 10% with the dry airmass in place and a thick shield
of high clouds expected, minimizing radiational cooling. Some
shallow, non- impactful fog may show up in observations with the
light to calm winds with recent rain, so have added 6SM MIFG
for EWN, OAJ, PGV. Tuesday winds continue out of the north
behind a reinforcing cold front moving through in the morning.

Outlook: Pred VFR expected Tuesday afternoon through Friday
with high pressure over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Only change as of this update was to end the small craft
advisories across the Alligator River, Albemarle,
Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and the coastal waters north of Oregon
Inlet given latest observations and trends in recent guidance.
Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

Prev Disc...The cold front and its associated showers and
thunderstorms are pushing offshore this morning. A surge of NNE
winds is expected to develop within the next couple of hours,
increasing winds to 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35+ kt (highest
near the Gulf Stream) and building seas to 5-7 ft by later this
morning. Conditions will improve throughout the day with all
SCAs scheduled to drop by this evening. Good boating conditions
will be short-lived as a dry cold front will reintroduce SCA
conditions starting Tuesday night. NE winds at 20-25 kt with
gusts to 25-35 kt will develop behind the front Tuesday night
with waves building to 6-10 ft in response.

Outlook: Once SCA conditions develop again Tuesday night, seas
will likely remain elevated into the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$