Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 2:12 PM

AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...Correction to Key Messages
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1256 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

 - Strong marine winds will persist through tonight over area
   waters. Additional rounds rounds of advisory-level conditions
   with gusts near gale-force are likely mid week as winds turn
   easterly.

 - The rip current risk increases to HIGH by mid-week. High surf
   with breaking waves of 5-8 feet are likely Wednesday and Thursday
   with the potential for minor coastal inundation.

 - Fire weather concerns are possible on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Now through Monday...

A series of upper level shortwave troughs move east over the
southern half of the Conus through Thursday, with the first moving
to along the East Coast tonight. Another shortwave trough, currently
over the Southwest/Mexico border, moves over the Southeast
Wednesday, before joining the energy over the East coast and moving
off Thursday into the weekend. A surface high over the Plains shifts
east over the Mid Atlantic region in response to shortwave energy
moving over the northern half of the Conus. A surface trough
develops over the southern Gulf along the stalled surface boundary
from Sunday and the shortwave energy over the East coast. This
creates a tight pressure gradient over the northern Gulf and strong
easterly winds setting up over the north-central and northeast Gulf
coast and south into mid week. Thursday through the weekend, an
upper ridge builds north along the Mississippi River. The surface
low/trough over the southern Gulf weakens and pressure gradient over
the northern Gulf eases. The surface ridge stretching southwest over
the Southeast also weakens, with a seasonably warm and dry pattern
setting up over the Southeast for the coming weekend.

Impacts from this set up through mid week will be two fold. Over
land areas, increasing deep layer winds will bring very high
dispersions into mid week. Combined with a decrease in relative
humidities with a warmer day expected Tuesday, fire weather concerns
are a possibility on Tuesday. Winds and relative humidity levels
combined remain below criteria levels for weather WWAs at this time.
By Wednesday, strong transport winds will bring high winds to the
forecast area, but much increased moisture levels will counteract
the need for any WWAs for Wednesday. Rain from over the weekend has
helped to increase fuel moisture levels over the area, but any further
WWAs outside of criteria levels may need to be addressed. Will
continue to monitor.

Over area coastal waters, the tight pressure gradient will bring
increased swell along with high surf to area beaches. A High Risk of
Rip Currents returns Tuesday night. Surf heights are projects to
rise into the 4`-6` range Tuesday night. A High Surf Advisory will
likely be needed in the near future. Also, we continue to evaluate
the need for a Coastal Flood Watch/Warning. The pressure gradient
over the northern Gulf begins to ease Thursday, with the Rip Risk
returning to Moderate to Low for the coming weekend.

Not to forget, temperatures. Tuesday through Thursday, high
temperatures around seasonal norms are expected (mid to upper 70s).
Low temperatures tonight ranging from the upper 40s north of Highway
84 to low 50s along the coast see an uptick into the mid 50s to near
60 by Thursday night. Through the weekend, high temperatures in the
low to mid 80s return to the forecast area (near 80 along the
coast). Low temperatures see a low rise, to the upper 50s to low 60s
by Monday night.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region through Tuesday.
Winds will remain generally out of the north-northeast to
northeast at around 10 knots gusting to 20 knots during the day
today and again Tuesday. Winds relax somewhat to 5 to 10 knots
overnight. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist into
tonight behind a cold front that passed through area waters. This
strong offshore flow will then temporarily decrease and turn
easterly by Tuesday afternoon before increasing once again late
Tuesday night. Moderate to very strong easterly winds will persist
through Friday, and we expect another round of small craft advisory-
level conditions are expected. A Gale Watch in effect for open Gulf
waters beginning late Tuesday night

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution on the Pensacola Bay System,
Perdido Bay, and Choctawhatchee Bay tonight.
/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Repost from above...

Over land areas of the forecast area, increasing deep layer winds
will bring very high dispersions into mid week. Combined with a
decrease in relative humidities with a warmer day expected Tuesday,
fire weather concerns are a possibility on Tuesday. Winds and
relative humidity levels combined remain below criteria levels
for weather WWAs at this time. By Wednesday, strong transport winds
will bring high winds to the forecast area, but increased moisture
levels will counteract the need for any WWAs for Wednesday. Rain
from over the weekend has helped to increase fuel moisture levels
over the area, but any further WWAs outside of criteria levels may
need to be addressed. Will continue to monitor.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  50  78  55 /  20   0   0   0
Pensacola   66  55  76  58 /  40  20   0   0
Destin      66  56  75  57 /  50  30   0   0
Evergreen   68  47  78  49 /  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  68  46  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      67  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   66  49  78  50 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from late Tuesday night through late
     Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late Tuesday night through late
     Thursday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$