Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 2:42 PM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
230 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine and Coastal Hazards through Midweek including High Risk
  of Rip Currents, High Surf Reaching Local Beaches Starting
  Tuesday, Small Craft Advisory through Tuesday Morning and then
  Gale Warning begins Tuesday noon through Wednesday Night. Wind
  Advisory also issued across coastal NE FL on Tuesday and may
  need to be extended into Wednesday.

- Fire Weather Watch Inland Southeast GA Tuesday afternoon

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Windy Coastal Conditions Rest of Today and Tonight

- High Risk of Rip Currents

- Beneficial rain for most of the area. Isolated thunderstorms
possible for North Central FL

The influence of high pressure ridging from out of the east will
continue to weaken as prevailing flow shifts about to become onshore
as upper level instability crosses over the Florida peninsula ahead
of the slowly stalling frontal boundary. Breezy winds and beneficial
stratiform rains will continue through today and tonight with a
slight chance for isolated thunderstorms developing in the vicinity
of coastal north central Florida overnight, however chances remain
more likely further to the south of the forecast area and over the
Atlantic. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s for southeast Georgia and ranging between the lower
70s and the lower 80s, with warmer temps occurring further
southward. Overnight low temps will drop down into the 50s over
inland areas and in the lower 60s along the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Windy onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday

- Fire Weather Concerns for inland southeast GA Tuesday

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

A mid to upper-level trough will remain oriented north-south across
the region on Tuesday, gradually pivoting to a more northwest-
southeast tilt by Wednesday evening. At the surface, a strong 1038
mb high centered over the southern Great Lakes will shift eastward,
becoming positioned offshore of the northeastern U.S. by Wednesday
evening. This pattern will maintain a tight pressure gradient across
the southeast, support persistent and strengthening northeasterly
flow.

Otherwise, we continue to advertised cooler and breezy to windy
onshore flow Tuesday through Wednesday area wide, with the stronger
winds focused along the coastal areas and the St Johns River Basin
where a wind advisory looks likely. Northeast winds of 20 to
possibly 25 mph, with gusts of 40 mph are anticipated. Winds
potentially stronger near 25 mph, gusts 45 mph for Wednesday and
again along the coastal areas.

The moist onshore flow supports convergence and the risk of
scattered to possible numerous showers, with an isolated t-storm
possible southern most zones. However, much drier/much less rainfall
amounts north of I-10 and west of I-95 in southeast GA. Given the
convergence for the northeast FL coast, locally moderate rainfall
amounts possible, from about 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches.

Temps will be on the cool side compared to normal. On Tuesday, highs
will be upper 60s to lower 70s for most of northeast FL, coastal
southeast GA, but mid 70s inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley. On Wednesday, generally upper 60s to lower 70s expected but
some mid 70s max temps well inland near locales from Ocala to
Gainesville to Trenton.  Despite the moisture from onshore flow,
inland southeast GA may have red flag conditions for fire weather on
Tuesday given the lower dewpoints there and breezy northeast winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow continues Thursday, with elevated winds along
the coast and inland to the St. Johns River Basin

A mid to upper level trough will remain in place across the region on
Thursday supporting a continuation of cyclonic flow at 500 mb and
some weak large scale ascent. By Friday, the trough begins to weaken
and shift south, allowing mid level heights to slowly rise as
ridging builds in from the west through the weekend. This transition
will promote increasing subsidence and a drying trend heading into
Saturday and Sunday, mainly for the coastal areas of northeast FL.

At the surface, strong high pressure centered northeast will
maintain a tight gradient on Thursday with broad inverted troughing
lingering offshore. This setup will support persistent and gusty
northeast winds. Weakened gradient relaxes on Friday with lower wind
speeds going into Saturday and Sunday.

Moist onshore flow on Thursday will continue to support a chance of
showers with the best chance of showers for St Johns and Flagler
counties where the higher PWAT air is located and convergence is
more maximized. A couple of thunderstorms possible for northeast FL
on Thursday. Rain chances much decrease on Friday as a drier air
works in, with transition to mostly dry and warmer temps over the
weekend.

Temps in the 70s on Thursday, and temps respond on Friday through
Sunday as the ridge builds in aloft. Max temps for the weekend reach
mid 80s inland, but mid-upper 70s for the beaches/coast as we still
see onshore flow/Atlantic sea breeze during the peak heating.

Several days of gusty northeasterly winds will continue to create
beach and marine hazards, including high surf, moderate beach
erosion and elevated coastal water levels at times of high tide
Thursday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Gusty winds ranging from 020-060 with sustained wind speeds up
to about 15 knots with gusts measuring to 25 knots through the
afternoon will lessen slightly this evening by around 23z and
then restrengthen overnight with conditions rising to Wind
Advisory levels along the coast by around 12z. Stratiform rain
is expected on and off through the forecast period with a
minimal chance for storms forming south of SGJ.

&&

.MARINE...

The Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect this morning for a
surge of northeasterly winds pushing north to south along the coast.
Strong onshore winds will continue through the week and will
intensify to Gale Force midday Tuesday through Wednesday night as
strong high pressure wedges in from the north. Strong onshore winds
with a long fetch will build seas to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through
Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken through Thursday and Friday as
high pressure moves away before much improved conditions developing
this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

An initial surge of northeast winds will lead to High Risk of
Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this afternoon.
Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents
through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected
Wednesday and surf is expected to build to near 12 feet during
this period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become
life- threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given
the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after
days of rough surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

-FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
 EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

-CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH AND BREEZY INLAND SE GEORGIA TUESDAY

-HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS INLAND SE GA TUESDAY AND HIGH
 DISPERSION FOR MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY

Much stronger high pressure builds in from the north today and
remains persistent through mid week, returning breezy to windy
onshore flow and mostly cloudy conditions with chances for showers
the closer to the coast. Critically low minRH values and breezy
winds are forecast Tuesday for portions of inland southeast Georgia,
with potential for red flag conditions with a Fire Weather Watch
remaining in effect at this time. Moisture levels will return above
critical levels the remainder of the week, but breezy easterly flow
will continue through Friday. High nighttime dispersions are
expected each night this week as well.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  75  53  71 /  10  10  10  20
SSI  60  70  61  69 /  40  20  20  50
JAX  57  71  59  72 /  60  40  20  60
SGJ  60  71  63  72 /  80  70  40  70
GNV  55  70  58  75 /  70  40  20  50
OCF  58  70  60  75 /  80  60  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     GAZ154-166.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
     Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-
     452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$