Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 3:12 PM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Issued a Freeze Watch for portions of Central VA and the
  interior MD Eastern Shore for Tuesday night

- Additional SCAs issued starting Tuesday afternoon

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will trend near or slightly below
average through mid week. A Freeze watch is in effect for portions
of the area for Tuesday night with additional frost/freeze headlines
possible Wed night.

2) There is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday
and Wednesday for areas that received little rainfall yesterday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures will trend near or slightly below
average through mid week. There is potential for frost/freeze
headlines Tuesday and Wednesday nights, as widespread lows around
freezing are possible away from the coast.

Another cold front will push into the area late tonight into early
tomorrow, this time without any rain. A strong area of cool high
pressure (~1035mb) builds in behind the front then slides by to
the north mid week. Aloft, a trough axis will slide offshore
tomorrow, but the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic will still be
under a trough. As a result, temps will dip down to below
average for a few days. Highs will be in the upper 50s and low
60s along and N of I-64 and low to mid 60s to the south
tomorrow, then most of the area stays in the 50s for Wednesday.
Overnight temps will be rather chilly as well as lows near and
below freezing are anticipated for Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning. Luckily the high never fully builds in overhead, so
the winds will not drop out enough for really efficient
radiational cooling. Still, expecting lows of 30-32F in the NW
counties and the interior MD Eastern Shore. After collaboration
with neighboring offices, it was decided to start the growing
season a few days early than climo for the piedmont counties on
account of the recent warm stretch and early blooming. As such,
a Freeze Watch has been issued for northern portions of the
piedmont (Cumberland to Caroline and west) as well as the MD
Eastern Shore (excluding MD beaches). Additional headlines are
possible for Wed night, but looks to be mainly a frost concern
for inland counties.


KEY MESSAGE 2...There is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday
and Wednesday for areas that received little rainfall yesterday.

Along with cooler weather behind tonight`s cold front, lower dew
points and breezy northwest winds are also expected Tues. Min RHs as
low as 20-15% are forecast for Tues afternoon inland, 25-35% closer
to the coast. Winds will gust 15-20mph W of the bay and 20-25mph on
the Eastern Shore. Yesterday`s rain provided little relief for much
of the area especially from the Middle Peninsula W through the
southside RIC metro/Chesterfield/Tri-Cities SW through the I-85
corridor where totals around 0.1" or less were measured. These
conditions may cause heightened fire weather concerns Tues.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/06 TAF period. A dry cold
front crossing over the area will bring increased, high level
cloud cover overnight. Then, skies clear out tomorrow from NW to
SE as strong high pressure builds in. Wind direction will be
variable the rest of today and overnight due to the frontal
passage. Breezy NW winds of 10-15kt expected behind the front
tomorrow.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions prevail through Friday. A
secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Strong high pressure building in behind a cold front will bring
additional SCA conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday, with
elevated seas lingering on the ocean through Friday.

Weak high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast
this aftn. The wind is light and locally variable. Seas are 2-3ft
with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind will become southerly 10-
15kt this evening then SW into the early overnight hours ahead of a
dry cold front, before shifting to N-NW behind the boundary Tuesday
morning. The best surge of CAA and pressure rises will be later in
the day, and especially Tuesday night as strong high pressure (1036-
1038mb) builds from the Great Lakes into NY/PA. A NE wind during
this period is forecast to increase back to SCA levels for most of
the area, highest across the lower portions of the Ches.. Bay and the
southern coastal waters. After that, the high is forecast to be
nearly 1040 mb and become anchored from southern New England into
the northern Mid-Atlantic region. This setup leads to a long fetch
of NE wind and the models are often underdone with wind and waves.
The onshore surge should build seas to 5-7 ft (potentially higher)
for the NC and southern VA ocean zones where seas potentially remain
at SCA levels into at least Friday.

SCAs have been issued for all zones beginning late Tuesday aftn and
evening with the exception of the northern coastal waters (N of
Parramore Is.) and the upper rivers. Local wind probs are nearly
100% for sustained 18kt for the Ches. Bay with gust probs to 25kt 60-
80%. SCAs for the Ches. Bay begin 20z Tuesday and run through 14z
Wednesday for the middle Bay and 20z Wednesday for the lower Bay
where an ENE wind should result in a longer period of elevated wind
and waves. SCAs for the lower James and Currituck Sound are 23z
Tuesday through 14z (James)/20z (Sound) Wednesday. SCAs for the
coastal waters S of Parramore Is. run through 22z Thursday given
high confidence of elevated seas.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for VAZ048-061-062-064-069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$