Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 3:21 PM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
212 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 212 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Below-normal high temps through mid-week then above-normal this
weekend

- Moderate rain chances (30-50%) returns Thursday/Friday

- Monitoring minor coastal flooding this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

After a soggier-than-normal Easter, much of South Texas has started
seeing drier air usher into the region. Tonight, temperatures will
drop into the upper 40s/low 50s with mostly clear skies (aside from
streaks of cirrus). As surface high that has provided this early-
Spring cool spell moves off to the Southeast, surface winds will
shift more southeasterly, allowing Gulf moisture to creep back into
the region. As such, the latter half of the week will see
temperatures climb back to above-normal values with locations seeing
rain having cooler temperatures.

Speaking of rainfall, while most of the rain that feel this Easter
weekend was a welcome sight, it increased soil moisture than
meaningful improvement to the surface water supply. This week`s rain
chances will be thanks to a shortwave moving moving through the
state, bringing moisture into the upper-levels from the Pacific
while at the surface, southeasterly flow will increase the surface
moisture back into the region (PWAT values between 1.4" and 1.6"
along the coastal plains). While there won`t be significant surface
boundary support, the confidence in scattered showers and
thunderstorms is moderate for Thursday/Friday. We`ll have a better
idea of the convective nature of any precipitation during this time
period when the CAMs start coming in (especially if we have
thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain in northern Mexico
associated with the dry line convective initiation and how far east
any storm moves into the Rio Grande Plains).

Guidance with respect to tide levels have been tricky this week with
high tide reaching 1.4-1.5 ft above MSL, which is generally below
the level needed to cause beach flooding but with consistent high
tides seeing water levels reach the dunes, the coastal flooding
observed is likely being driven by the increased swell period.
Latest guidance has the swell period increasing to 8-10 seconds
through the weekend bringing continued chances for this hazard.
While no products will be issued with this package, one may be
needed for Tuesday`s late morning high tide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. Main thing that
will change will be the wind direction, from a NE heading to an E`ly
heading late Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Winds will gradually veer to an easterly direction and become more
gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through Tuesday afternoon. From Tuesday
night, winds will be more onshore with 2-4 ft seas. Rain chances
will be low to moderate (20-40%) through Thursday before increasing
to near 50% from Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Although drier conditions will continue through Wednesday, slight
rain and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast by late week
into the weekend. Relative humidity values will remain above
critical thresholds. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are
not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    55  76  63  79 /   0   0  10  20
Victoria          47  80  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
Laredo            52  80  63  81 /   0   0  10  20
Alice             51  80  60  82 /   0   0  10  20
Rockport          60  78  66  80 /   0   0  10  20
Cotulla           51  81  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        51  78  61  80 /   0   0  10  20
Navy Corpus       63  74  68  77 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$