Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 7:39 PM

AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
728 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. Gale Watch
issued for local coastal waters Tuesday night through Wednesday
night (6z Wed - 6z Thurs).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temperatures through late week. Frost/freeze
conditions are not expected.

2) An extended period of hazardous marine conditions begins
Tuesday night and persists through the end of the week.
Potential for gale-force gusts Tuesday night and Wednesday.

3) Elevated fire weather conditions possible Wednesday.

4) Hazardous surf conditions expected at east and southeast
facing beaches for most of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures through late week.
Frost/freeze conditions are not expected.

Cool airmass in place with low level north-northeast flow over
the next few days will keep temperatures below normal through
late week. High temps around 65-70F each afternoon through
Thursday. The lowest temperatures will be Tuesday and Wednesday
nights. Current forecast has min temps in the 40-45F range, with
potential for upper 30s. Thankfully, elevated winds keeping
boundary layer mixed on the east side of low level ridge to the
north will hinder radiational cooling and prevent frost/freeze
concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An extended period of hazardous marine
conditions begins Tuesday night and persists through the end of
the week. Potential for gale-force gusts Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

See Marine Section below.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Elevated fire weather conditions possible
Wednesday.

Minimum RH values near 30% in the afternoon combined with gusty
northeast winds around 25 mph, potentially 30 mph, may lead to
elevated fire weather conditions for both northeast SC and southeast
NC on Wednesday. Fire Danger Statements may be coordinated with
local fire agencies during subsequent forecast packages.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Hazardous surf conditions expected at east and
southeast facing beaches for most of the week.

Moderate rip current risk forecasted for east-facing beaches
Tuesday due to lingering ENE swell. Surf conditions worsen
Tuesday night into Wednesday as ENE swell quickly builds with
long fetch of elevated winds over the western Atlantic. These
elevated swells may lead to high rip current risk for east and
southeast facing beaches Wednesday through Friday. There is also
potential for breaking wave heights of 6-7 ft Wednesday through
Friday for New Hanover and Georgetown county beaches, and a
High Surf Advisory may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR and dry through the 00Z TAF period. Light winds tonight
become up to ~10 kt out of the NNE daytime Tuesday as sfc high
pressure moves eastwards north of the area.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR conditions expected through
the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...High pressure will build into the NE US
through the period. Locally this keeps flow out of the NE. AFter
a short- lived relaxation of the gradient tonight these winds
will pick back up rather quickly on Tuesday as the high drops
into PA setting up a long fetch into the Carolinas adding swell
energy to the burgeoning wind chop. See below that that longer
term forecaster has raised headlines this package.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Long fetch of gusty NE winds
across the western Atlantic, between ridge to the north and
trough well offshore, will lead to hazardous marine conditions
quickly developing Tuesday night. SCA conditions are forecasted
to persist through late Friday due to prolonged period of
elevated seas. Northeast winds peak Tuesday night through late
Wednesday, with forecasted gusts near gale-force prompting the
issuance of a Gale Watch. Confidence in gale conditions isn`t
high, and the watch may be replaced by a SCA for high-end
advisory conditions, especially due to elevated seas. Winds
remain out of the northeast through the end of the week, though
at slowly weakening speeds.

The prolonged NE fetch will lead to rapidly increasing wave
heights Tuesday night, with 3-5 ft waves Tuesday evening
building to 6-9 ft by daybreak Wednesday in the form of ENE
swell. Seas remain in the 6- 9 ft range through late Wednesday
before very slowly improving, but only lowering by about one
foot each day through Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
     night for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$