Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 8:09 PM

AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
756 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Excessive Rain Threat This Week: Multiple rounds of rain and
  storms are expected through Thursday, especially along the coast
  where totals of 2-5" are forecast. Localized higher amounts may
  lead to flash flooding in urban and poorly-drained areas.

- Strong Wind Gusts Beginning Tuesday: Persistent northeast winds
  will gust from 25-35 mph starting Tuesday. There is a 20-40%
  chance of peak wind gusts exceeding 45 mph on Tuesday and
  Wednesday. These winds may cause a few power outages; secure
  all lightweight outdoor items.

- Dangerous Surf & Boating Impacts: Large breaking waves building
  to 8-12 feet at Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches Tuesday
  through Thursday, with higher waves offshore. Expect minor to
  moderate beach erosion around high tide and numerous life-
  threatening rip currents. Entering the ocean is strongly
  discouraged this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Current-Tonight...The weak cold frontal boundary continues to settle
southward across the central FL peninsula early this afternoon.
Initial light northerly flow behind it will veer NNE/NE with speeds
increasing to 10-15 mph, and perhaps 15-20 mph near/north of I-4 -
highest along the Volusia coast, where gusts late today may
approach 25-30 mph into this evening. This evening, much of the
area south of Orlando will see winds diminish to 5-10 mph; whereas
further north winds will stay elevated near 10 mph with higher
gusts - esp along the Volusia coast (15-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph).
Ahead of sunrise Tue morning here (Volusia coast), winds may pick
up to sustained 20 to 25 mph with gusts 30+ mph. Expect cloud-
cover to "thicken" thru the remainder of the afternoon and
tonight, post-frontal. PWATs will surge to 1.50-1.75" nearly
areawide thru late today. Weak troughing aloft develops over the
Gulf as winds "back" to SW and pieces of shortwave energy push
across the peninsula, esp evening/overnight with increasing upper
support.

SCT-NMRS convection remains forecast this afternoon and tonight.
While we may see some initial activity develop along the ECSB,
highest coverage over the interior during the late afternoon and
early evening, then projected toward the coast during the night.
Storm steering will be out of the southwest up to around 10 mph. A
few strong storms are possible with main convective threats of
lightning strikes, gusty winds to around 45 mph, small hail, and
torrential downpours. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed
pretty much ALL of ECFL in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
thru tonight. Therefore, some minor/nuisance flooding will be
possible for locations that receive multiple rounds. Much of the
area remains dry at present and can initially take some bouts of
heavy rainfall. At the least, we are expecting some flooding of
prone urban and poorly drained areas. Lows continue in the L-M60s
for most.

Tue-Thu...The former frontal boundary will settle across the
southern peninsula/FL Straits thru this period. The Weather
Prediction Center keeps much of ECFL within a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall for Tue & Wed. General "troughiness" aloft will
continue with numerous shortwave impulses traversing the central
peninsula. Frictional convergence will be enhanced in the low-
levels with the strong onshore flow. We are expecting slow-moving
convergent convective bands to develop along the coast, with
abnormally high coverage (60-80%) of showers and storms, esp for
the climatologically driest month of the year for central FL.
Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected thru mid-week and may
promote a flooding threat. A Flood Watch may eventually be
required, but much of the area begins this event rather dry so we
will monitor conditions.

At present, we continue to message peak amounts during this period
of 2-4" along much of the coast, locally 5-7" in play here. For the
interior, 1-3" and locally 4-5". Some areas may not receive these
amounts and some could receive more, again much depending on
surface/upper air features and where "banding" sets up with repeated
rounds. While, this rainfall will certainly help bring some relief
from ongoing drought conditions, too much rain too quickly could
lead to (flash) flooding issues.

With the proximity of the aforementioned frontal boundary,
strengthening high pressure will push across the Atlc Seaboard
creating a tight pressure gradient across ECFL spreading southward
during the day on Tue. This will increase onshore (NERLY) flow thru
Thu, with windy/gusty conditions, esp along the (Volusia/Space)
coast. Gusts approach 25-35+ mph on Tue/Wed (perhaps 40-45 mph
Volusia/Space coasts). We will monitor for further Wind Advisory
criteria. Breezy and gusty (G25-30 mph) onshore winds continue
into Thu. Elevated winds & gusts will also continue each evening
and overnight. This duration of strong onshore winds may cause
sporadic power outages if limbs fall on power lines. Secure any
lightweight items, such as trash cans, that may be tossed about.

High coverage of clouds and precip will lead to below normal
temperatures in the 70s Tue-Thu. Some areas north of I-4 on Tue may
struggle to 70F or L70s. Overnight lows remain in the 60s.

Strong onshore breezes will cause dangerous conditions along the
coast, including rough, pounding surf and life-threatening rip
currents persisting thru Thu. It is strongly advised to stay out of
the ocean this week! Rapidly building surf spreading southward on
Tue, with breakers reaching 8-12 ft by late Wed. Minor to moderate
beach and dune erosion will be possible surrounding the twice-daily
high tides beginning on Wed.

Fri-Mon...Previous Slightly Modified...We should gradually come out
of this impactful stretch of weather as we approach the weekend.
Some lingering showers are still forecast on Fri (30-40%) and
perhaps even Sat (15-20%) as fresh onshore breezes continue.
Rainfall amounts should be lighter, however. Most locations should
be dry by next Sun. A warming trend should get underway, with
highs from the U70s to L80s. Lows consistent and in the L-M60s,
save for some U60s at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A weakening cold front settles across the local waters and remains
in proximity thru mid-week. An abnormally high coverage of showers
and storms will exist thru Wed-Thu. NERLY winds will also increase
with building seas promoting hazardous to dangerous boating
conditions for much of this week. Small Craft Advisories go into
effect later today/tonight into Tue, with developing Gale
conditions Tue afternoon thru at least Wed night. NE winds will
reach 20-30kts sustained with occasional to frequent gust to Gale
Force late Tue thru Wed night. Seas quickly build into Tue, 8-12
ft north & 5-7 ft south, continuing upward to 10-16 ft Tue night
and Wed. Seas remain hazardous through the rest of the work-week
as wind speeds only very gradually diminish.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 756 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Front has shifted south of KMLB, and is forecast to then remain
quasi-stationary across central Florida through early tomorrow
morning before shifting farther southward Tuesday afternoon as
low pressure along the front shifts offshore. For the time being
lightning activity has diminished, but areas of light to moderate
rain will continue over some terminals this evening. MVFR cigs
will continue to build in north of the front, with IFR cigs
possible. Repeated rounds of rain, with increasing coverage of
onshore moving showers and potentially some storms forecast
overnight tonight through Tuesday, with threat of locally heavy
rainfall, especially along the coast where heavier bands of
showers and storms develop and persist.

Winds will be N/NE up to 10-15 knots north of the front tonight
(KMLB northward), and lighter around 5-8 knots out of the E/NE to
the south. As front shifts south, N/NE winds increase
significantly and become quite windy, especially north of the
Treasure Coast. Wind speeds are forecast to increase to 20-25
knots with gusts 30-35 knots. Some of the MOS guidance is even
higher, however, and will have to be monitored for further
increases in future TAF updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  72  64  75 /  90  80  60  80
MCO  66  70  65  72 /  80  80  50  80
MLB  66  75  67  75 /  90  80  70  80
VRB  66  77  66  77 /  80  80  70  80
LEE  63  71  63  75 /  90  80  40  70
SFB  65  73  63  75 /  80  80  60  80
ORL  65  72  64  74 /  80  80  50  80
FPR  65  77  65  77 /  80  80  70  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     FLZ141.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-570.

     Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-
     570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552-
     572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555-
     575.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for
     AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.

&&

$$