Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 8:39 PM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
830 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine and Coastal Hazards through Midweek. High Risk of Rip
Currents continue through midweek. High Surf Reaching Local Beaches
Starting Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory through Tuesday Morning. Gale
Warning begins Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Night. Wind Advisory
across coastal NE FL on Tuesday

- Fire Weather Watch Inland Southeast GA Tuesday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.UPDATE...
A break in the rain showers is occurring across the vast majority of
the region this evening, though expected to "fill in" overnight and
towards morning, mainly over northeast FL and towards the coast. The
best chance for a few heavier downpouts and perhaps an isolated
t`storm will be the further south and east you go, closer to an
inverted trough just to the southeast of the region. Reinforcing
high pressure ridging builds in from the north overnight, with a
noticeable increase in the pressure gradient and therefore wind
speeds towards morning. A wind advisory begins at 6AM Tuesday, and
expecting gusts around 40 mph to begin as early as around 5-6AM
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Windy Coastal Conditions Today and Tonight

- High Risk of Rip Currents

- Beneficial rain for most of the area. Isolated thunderstorms
possible for North Central FL

The influence of high pressure ridging from out of the east will
continue to weaken as prevailing flow shifts about to become onshore
as upper level instability crosses over the Florida peninsula ahead
of the slowly stalling frontal boundary. Breezy winds and beneficial
stratiform rains will continue through today and tonight with a
slight chance for isolated thunderstorms developing in the vicinity
of coastal north central Florida overnight, however chances remain
more likely further to the south of the forecast area and over the
Atlantic. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s for southeast Georgia and ranging between the lower
70s and the lower 80s, with warmer temps occurring further
southward. Overnight low temps will drop down into the 50s over
inland areas and in the lower 60s along the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Windy onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday

- Fire Weather Concerns for inland southeast GA Tuesday

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

A mid to upper-level trough will remain oriented north-south across
the region on Tuesday, gradually pivoting to a more northwest-
southeast tilt by Wednesday evening. At the surface, a strong 1038
mb high centered over the southern Great Lakes will shift eastward,
becoming positioned offshore of the northeastern U.S. by Wednesday
evening. This pattern will maintain a tight pressure gradient across
the southeast, support persistent and strengthening northeasterly
flow.

Otherwise, we continue to advertised cooler and breezy to windy
onshore flow Tuesday through Wednesday area wide, with the stronger
winds focused along the coastal areas and the St Johns River Basin
where a wind advisory looks likely. Northeast winds of 20 to
possibly 25 mph, with gusts of 40 mph are anticipated. Winds
potentially stronger near 25 mph, gusts 45 mph for Wednesday and
again along the coastal areas.

The moist onshore flow supports convergence and the risk of
scattered to possible numerous showers, with an isolated t-storm
possible southern most zones. However, much drier/much less rainfall
amounts north of I-10 and west of I-95 in southeast GA. Given the
convergence for the northeast FL coast, locally moderate rainfall
amounts possible, from about 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches.

Temps will be on the cool side compared to normal. On Tuesday, highs
will be upper 60s to lower 70s for most of northeast FL, coastal
southeast GA, but mid 70s inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley. On Wednesday, generally upper 60s to lower 70s expected but
some mid 70s max temps well inland near locales from Ocala to
Gainesville to Trenton.  Despite the moisture from onshore flow,
inland southeast GA may have red flag conditions for fire weather on
Tuesday given the lower dewpoints there and breezy northeast winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow continues Thursday, with elevated winds along
the coast and inland to the St. Johns River Basin

A mid to upper level trough will remain in place across the region on
Thursday supporting a continuation of cyclonic flow at 500 mb and
some weak large scale ascent. By Friday, the trough begins to weaken
and shift south, allowing mid level heights to slowly rise as
ridging builds in from the west through the weekend. This transition
will promote increasing subsidence and a drying trend heading into
Saturday and Sunday, mainly for the coastal areas of northeast FL.

At the surface, strong high pressure centered northeast will
maintain a tight gradient on Thursday with broad inverted troughing
lingering offshore. This setup will support persistent and gusty
northeast winds. Weakened gradient relaxes on Friday with lower wind
speeds going into Saturday and Sunday.

Moist onshore flow on Thursday will continue to support a chance of
showers with the best chance of showers for St Johns and Flagler
counties where the higher PWAT air is located and convergence is
more maximized. A couple of thunderstorms possible for northeast FL
on Thursday. Rain chances much decrease on Friday as a drier air
works in, with transition to mostly dry and warmer temps over the
weekend.

Temps in the 70s on Thursday, and temps respond on Friday through
Sunday as the ridge builds in aloft. Max temps for the weekend reach
mid 80s inland, but mid-upper 70s for the beaches/coast as we still
see onshore flow/Atlantic sea breeze during the peak heating.

Several days of gusty northeasterly winds will continue to create
beach and marine hazards, including high surf, moderate beach
erosion and elevated coastal water levels at times of high tide
Thursday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR conditions are in place across most airfields, and are expected
to prevail for most of the forecast period. The exception is at SSI,
which is expected to be near the "edge" of MVFR ceilings for most of
the period, and SGJ which is expected to flirt with IFR ceilings
throughout the forecast period. Any RA around the region is light at
this time with little to no operational effects. However, areas of
RA will increase during the morning hours at all airfields in
addition to gusty northeasterly winds developing, in the 15-25 kt
range with gusts of 30+ kts expected during the daytime hours
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure ridging down the southeastern seaboard will be
reinforced tonight, with strong onshore winds then continuing
through the week and intensifying to Gale Force Tuesday through
Wednesday night. The strong winds with a long fetch will build seas
to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will gradually
weaken through Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves away
before much improved conditions developing this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

An initial surge of northeast winds this morning will lead to High
Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this
afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip
currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected
Wednesday and surf is expected to build to 10-13 feet during this
period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life-
threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high
breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough
surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
- For Portions Of Southeast Georgia

- Critically Low Min Rh And Breezy Inland Se Georgia Tuesday

     HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS INLAND SE GA TUESDAY AND HIGH
- Dispersion For Many Areas On Wednesday

Much stronger high pressure builds in from the north today and
remains persistent through mid week, returning breezy to windy
onshore flow and mostly cloudy conditions with chances for showers
the closer to the coast. Critically low minRH values and breezy
winds are forecast Tuesday for portions of inland southeast Georgia,
with potential for red flag conditions with a Fire Weather Watch
remaining in effect at this time. Moisture levels will return above
critical levels the remainder of the week, but breezy easterly flow
will continue through Friday. High nighttime dispersions are
expected each night this week as well.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  73  52  70 /  30  20  10  20
SSI  60  68  60  68 /  50  50  20  40
JAX  57  69  59  72 /  60  60  30  60
SGJ  60  70  62  73 /  90  90  60  80
GNV  56  67  58  74 /  60  60  30  60
OCF  60  68  60  74 /  60  60  40  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     GAZ154-166.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
     Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-
     452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$