Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 8:57 PM

AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
844 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to linger
this evening as anomalously deep moisture pools in the vicinity
of the slow moving frontal boundary across the central Florida
peninsula. While precipitation chances will generally linger
tonight, overall coverage will decrease slightly overnight for a
brief period before increasing once again early Tuesday morning as
upper support increases with the approach of a mid level trough.
This next wave of activity tomorrow morning should mostly be
beneficial given the ongoing drought but locally heavier rainfall
may cause very isolated hydro issues particularly in any poor
drainage and/or urban areas. Only updates needed this evening were
just some minor adjustments to PoPs based on recent radar trends
but otherwise the ongoing forecast is in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A slow moving cold front is pushing through North Florida this
morning. As the boundary approaches the moisture has been increasing
with our morning sounding showing PWs is now around 1.4. This will
allow for an increased chance for afternoon and evening seabreeze
thunderstorms mainly in the interior portions of the CWA today.

As we get into the overnight period the front will stall over the
area and remain there until Thursday. This will bring cloudy and
windy conditions through Thursday with gust up to 25 mph. We will
also see high shower chances during this period however this does
not mean we will be seeing high rainfall totals. Showers will be
spotty through the 72 hour period with most of it being light rain
with totals around 0.5 to 1 inches over the three days. The
overcast skies will also keep temperatures below average with
highs in the 70s each day.

The front will dissipate Thursday night allow clearer skies and
calmer winds to return. We will also transition into a drier
weather pattern with only isolated rain showers chances from
Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will also be on the rise
with widespread mid 80`s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Several rounds of SHRA/TSRA expected throughout some of the TAF
period with the first round expected to ease somewhat by the late
evening hours, but another round of activity should then impact
portions of the region by Tuesday morning. The precipitation
activity should improve by the late afternoon and evening hours
tomorrow at most coastal sites, but some activity may linger
inland. In addition to the multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA,
widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs will develop overnight with MVFR CIGs
then lingering for much of the day on Tuesday, though brief
periods of VFR CIGs could occur particularly later in the day.
Otherwise, very breezy winds out of the NE are expected tomorrow
with gusts around 25-30 kts or more at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
Winds will be increasing through the afternoon and evening hours
out of the northeast as a slow moving cold front starts to push
through. This front will be stalling over Central Florida from
Tuesday through Thursday. During this time period we will see
gusty winds around 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30 knots. We
will also see spotty light showers. The front will start to
dissipate on Friday. As it does so winds will slowly start to
drop to around 10 to 15 knots by Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A front will stall over the area overnight. This will bring
breezy and humid conditions with spotty light showers through
Thursday. By Friday this front will dissipate as drier air
filters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  76  65  78 /  70  70  30  60
FMY  68  81  67  81 /  60  70  40  60
GIF  66  75  65  76 /  80  70  40  80
SRQ  66  76  65  78 /  70  70  30  60
BKV  60  73  60  77 /  80  60  30  70
SPG  70  77  69  80 /  70  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$