Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 8:57 PM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
849 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- A critical combination of wind, low humidity, and dry fuels is
  forecast on Tuesday, mainly over part of southwest Georgia and
  the eastern Florida Panhandle. Any outdoor burning is highly
  discouraged.

- Strong easterly winds are expected from Tuesday through
  Thursday, with the strongest wind most likely coming on
  Wednesday. On the Gulf, there is a medium chance (60 percent)
  of eventually needing a Gale Warning. On land, wind gusts of
  35-40 mph may eventually necessitate a Wind Advisory.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Rainfall this evening has been very light thanks to some drier air
in the low levels. Late this evening into the overnight, an area
of low pressure will begin to develop in the southeast Gulf along
the cold front, and we`ll see some redevelopment of light rain
overnight, mainly in the Florida Big Bend into south Georgia.
Little impact outside of some slick roads is expected. Only made
some minor tweaks to the rain chances going into the rest of
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A cold front remains stalled to our south over Central Florida
this afternoon with a mid level shortwave currently over the
central Gulf coast. These features are helping support isentropic
lift and therefore cloud cover and rain showers across our region
today despite being in the wake of the cold front. The shortwave
will very slowly continue eastward while the front moves slowly
southward towards South Florida on Tuesday. Some additional rain
showers will be possible through Tuesday across the far
southeastern portions of the area as a result, although no
meaningful rainfall accumulation is expected. Breezy and quite dry
conditions are expected across the FL Panhandle, W Big Bend, and
into south Georgia on Tuesday afternoon as the gradient tightens
in response to the aforementioned front and strong high pressure
over the eastern CONUS. Despite recent rainfall, the combination
of drought, wind, and low relative humidity on Tuesday afternoon
will likely lead to elevated fire danger, and a Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect. Please follow instructions from local officials
and obey burn bans.

Expect highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s for most of the
area with upper 60s to low 70s across the Southeast Big Bend where
more cloud cover and rain chances are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The gradient will continue to tighten on Wednesday as a surface
low develops along the stalled front over South Florida. This will
lead to quite windy conditions on Wednesday, with the added bonus
of the breezy easterly flow bringing moisture back into the area.
Another shortwave is forecast to approach from the west, leading
to an isolated to scattered chance for showers again on Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Again, no significant rainfall accumulation
is expected. While Wednesday is expected to be the windiest of the
week, the gradient is forecast to remain quite tight and therefore
winds quite breezy through at least Friday.

Ridging is forecast to slide over the area in time for the
weekend, wiping out any rain chances and also allowing
temperatures to climb into the unseasonably warm mid to upper 80s
once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Light rain will
continue through tonight at TLH and VLD and maybe ECP. However,
obs indicate the rain has been light enough to not restrict vsbys.
Thus, have only made mention of 6SM vsbys in the rain. DHN and ABY
will likely remain rain-free. Cigs could briefly lower as the rain
ends at TLH and VLD early Tuesday morning, so have included a
tempo for that possibility. Otherwise, low to mid level clouds
quickly scour after sunrise. Gusty NE winds are likely through the
day Tuesday with gusts around 25 kt being common.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The week ahead will be rough on the waters. The entire work week
will feature strong to gale-force northeast and east winds. Strong
northeasterly winds are expected across the northeastern Gulf in
response to lowering pressure over South Florida today. Strong
continental high pressure will bridge south across the waters on
Tuesday and Wednesday, setting up near-gale and gale- force
easterlies. Low pressure over South Florida will finally eject
east across the Bahamas and into the Atlantic on Friday, causing
winds to back around northeasterly and gradually weaken below
Small Craft strength.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The big story this week will be repeated days of strong northeast to
east winds from Tuesday through at least the end of the work week.
At first on Tuesday, the influx of dry air over our Georgia and
Alabama districts is likely to create a critical combination of wind
and low humidity. The strongest winds will come on Wednesday when
many districts will experience wind gusts near 40 mph, but a gradual
wind shift from northeast to east will help raise humidity above
critical thresholds. Winds will start to slowly trend downward on
Friday in time for the return of above-normal temperatures. With
such strong winds this week, widespread high dispersion values are
expected each day from Tuesday through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

No significant rainfall accumulation is expected through the next
7 days. Recent rainfall was hydrologically insignificant and
therefore not enough to improve ongoing drought conditions. See
our latest Drought Information Statement at:
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  55  73  55 /  70  60  20  10
Panama City   68  56  76  57 /  70  40  10  10
Dothan        66  51  75  52 /  30  20   0   0
Albany        68  53  75  52 /  30  20   0   0
Valdosta      67  54  72  54 /  60  40  20  10
Cross City    77  54  69  57 /  50  70  50  20
Apalachicola  66  56  70  60 /  80  70  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for FLZ008>014-016-017-027-112-326-426.

GA...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for GAZ125-127>131-143>148-155>161.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for
     GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$