Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Apr 6, 2026 9:42 PM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
927 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to grow in
  coverage overnight tonight, lasting through Tuesday night.

- Bouts of wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday or
  Wednesday night, with less confidence in rainfall coverage for
  Thursday.

- Near the end of the week, breezy to possibly windy conditions
  may return, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
The several days of generally quiet weather look to be coming to a
rather rapid end on this late Monday evening. Surface analysis
places a stationary front draped across central Florida, where
scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms have supported
high rainfall totals in areas. Aloft, CIMSS satellite- derived
upper-level divergence fields highlight an area of strong
divergent flow (forced large-scale ascent) centered over the
central Gulf propagating eastward towards the Florida Peninsula
associated with a modestly amplifying shortwave trough.

Overnight, existing convection over the South Florida Mainland
will likely trigger cold cool boundaries that may progress
southwestward to the Keys marine zones. The aforementioned
shortwave feature will support large-scale ascent and further
convective development, including deeper possible stronger
thunderstorms. The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled an
environment with ample convective instability to be utilized,
along with very limited inhibition. Convection should develop
sometime around or just after midnight, then splinter down towards
the Keys Island Chain. Most convective allowing model (CAM)
guidance supports this general evolution. The forecast calls for
mid- level chance rain and thunderstorm probabilities, with
temperatures dropping to near 70F in the rain- cooled communities.
Any rainfall will assist with drought relief, as most of the
Florida Keys remain in moderate drought levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
Light to gentle easterly breezes will become variable at times
during the overnight hours tonight, as a frontal boundary stalls
north of the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop overnight, lasting through at least
Wednesday. Breezes will freshen late in the week through the
weekend, although confidence in the timing of onset of the
freshened breezes remains quite low at this time due to the
uncertainty in the evolution of the frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near
the terminals overnight. Confidence in timing of onset and
evolution warrants only inclusion of VCSH mention at this time,
although this will be reevaluated for the 06z TAF routine
issuance. Near- surface winds out of the east will become light
and variable, with boundaries from any developing storms
resulting in chaotic wind gusts. These impacts will be left to
possible TEMPOs in the TAFs. Shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected to wane in the vicinity of the terminals by late morning
or early evening, before additional storms may develop late in
the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  72  81  69 /  20  30  40  40
Marathon  82  72  80  70 /  20  40  50  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$