Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 1:15 AM

AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1210 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions will persist through much of the
  week. Winds and seas will be highest on Wednesday and Thursday.
  Inexperienced mariners and those operating small craft should
  avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

- A prolonged period of strong easterly winds could result in
  minor coastal flooding of east-facing shores including Waveland
  and Shell Beach on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons during high
  tide cycles. This would result in upwards of 1 foot of water
  inundating low-lying roads near Shoreline Park and Venetian
  Isle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Light stratiform rainfall continues to gradually sink southward
offshore today in association with a decaying front intersecting
with diffluence of the an upper-level trough situated along the
northern Gulf coast. This trough will continue to move to the east
leading to subsidence and drying out of our area through Tuesday.
Light northerly winds will continue to allow drier air to advect
southward with minimum dew point temperatures reaching the upper
30s to mid 40s. This in combination with clearing skies, will
allow for more efficient radiational cooling and allow
temperatures to fall into the 40s along and north of the I-10/12
corridor with 50s near the coast. Tuesday morning will be the
coldest night of the forecast period before we gradually begin to
warm up each night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Cloud cover returns by Wednesday into the latter part of the week as
another jet streak associated with split flow with the subtropical
jet aids lift and generates convection. Moisture will also gradually
return as easterly flow establishes itself into the latter half of
the week on the southern flank of a strong high pressure system over
eastern CONUS. This will lead to more appreciable rain chances of 20-
50% Wed-Fri. Pressure falls associated with this jet streak and
troughing will strengthen the pressure gradient with this high
leading to intensification of easterly winds starting Wednesday as
well with winds as high as 20 to 30 mph across parts of the
southshore, especially St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes. This
could prompt wind advisories needing to be issued for these areas in
addition to the existing coastal flood threat this easterly fetch
will present for east-facing shores starting Wednesday and
continuing through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions through the cycle. Main story will be gusty winds
in excess of 20 knots at times for MSY, NEW, and perhaps GPT,
especially during the afternoon hours today. Winds should relax a
bit soon after sunset. (Frye)


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

We will remain on the southern flank of a strong area of high
pressure through much of the middle and late part of the week. This
combined with weak upper troughing associated with the subtropical
jet generating pressure falls over the Gulf will enhance the
pressure gradient and create a stout easterly fetch across the
northern Gulf through Friday. This will cause hazardous marine
conditions for small crafts across the coastal waters with wind
gusts nearing 30 to 35 knots, and wave heights of 8 to 12 feet in
the outer waters and 3 to 6 feet in the protected waters.

Minor coastal flooding will also be a concern with this persistent
easterly fetch. East-facing shores such as Waveland and Shell Beach
could see low-lying roads in Shoreline Park and Venetian Isles
inundated on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons during high tide
cycles.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$