Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 1:39 AM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Key Messages:

 * Below normal temperatures will continue tonight and Tuesday
   before a warming trend develops through the rest of the week.

 * A series of upper level disturbances will lead to low to moderate
   (30-60 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms each day
   Wednesday through Saturday.

 * A High Risk of Rip Currents will continue overnight before
   becoming a moderate risk on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A nearly Zonal flow aloft with a series of embedded shortwave
disturbances are expected to move though Deep South Texas by mid-
week. Rain chances (10 to 20 percent) start to increase late
Tuesday night near the coast. There is a low to moderate (20 to 40
percent) rain showers Wednesday into Wednesday night. A more
potent shortwave swings through the area Thursday into Friday.
This will lead to a moderate (40 to 60 percent) chance of rain
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday into Friday. Rain chances
linger into Saturday with low (20 to 30 percent) chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Dry conditions look to return Sunday into
Tuesday.

Another cool night is expected across the area tonight with
overnight lows dropping into the 50s, except the 60s along the
beaches. Below normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday with
highs reaching the upper 70s to the lower 80s at most locations.
Near normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday night with lows
falling into the 60s area wide. Temperatures will steadily warm
through the rest of the week and into the weekend as the onshore
flow continues.

There is a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at area
beaches overnight with a moderate risk on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to persist through most of
the TAF period at all TAF sites. There could be a bit of MVFR due
to low-level clouds moving through the region towards the end of
the period. Winds should start out of the north, but then become
more easterly as the period progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Light to moderate northeast winds and sea heights between 3 to 5
feet prevail along the Lower Texas Coast late this evening.
Conditions will continue to improve overnight with favorable
conditions expected Tuesday through late week. Slightly adverse to
adverse conditions will be possible by the weekend as the
pressure gradient strengthens. Elevated winds and seas may lead to
exercise caution to low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions as
early as Friday night on the Gulf waters. There is a low (20 to 30
percent) chance of rain Tuesday night through Wednesday night and
a moderate (30 to 60 percent) rain/thunderstorm chance Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  66  81  68 /  10  30  30  30
HARLINGEN               81  62  83  64 /  10  20  30  20
MCALLEN                 83  66  85  69 /  10  20  40  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         81  63  83  66 /   0  20  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  70  76  71 /  20  20  30  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  66  81  67 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$