Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 1:54 AM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
149 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine and Coastal Hazards through Midweek. High Risk of Rip
  Currents continue through midweek. High Surf of 7-12+ Feet at
  Local Beaches. Small Craft Advisory through Early This
  Morning, Gale Warning 8AM This Morning through Wednesday
  Night. Wind Advisory for Coastal NE FL and the St. Johns
  River Basin Today

- Red Flag Warning for Inland Southeast GA Today

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Windy Coastal Conditions Today and Tonight

- High Risk of Rip Currents

- Critical fire weather conditions over inland GA

- Isolated thunderstorms possible for portions of Northeast FL

High pressure ridging will get reinforced from the north this
morning, and combined with a coastal trough lingering just southeast
of our region will ramp up the northeasterly wind event further for
today and tonight. Along with the marine and coastal hazards
remaining in place (including a high risk for rip currents), a Wind
Advisory is in effect for both coastal areas and those surrounding
the St. Johns River through tonight, as sustained winds in the 20-
30mph range with frequent gusts up to 40-45mph are expected during
the daylight hours today. The high pressure surge from the north
will drop the surface front already south of the area a bit further
south, helping more sunshine to break out over inland GA where a Red
Flag Warning is in effect today. The further south and east you go
will also be higher one`s chances for showers will be as the day
evolves, as ridging will help to shift any lingering showers/light
rain over GA further south and east throughout the day today. An
isolated thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out towards coastal FL,
but especially from around St. Johns county south. High temps will
be expectedly cool in the 60s to near 70 across northeast FL with
the onshore flow, with low to mid 70s across southeast GA.

Tonight, winds are likely to subside enough to below advisory
criteria, but remaining breezy, especially near the coast where the
highest chances for ongoing showers will be. Lows will range
generally in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Windy Conditions Wednesday and Breezy/Gusty Thursday

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

A robust surface high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard
will work in concert with an inverted trough offshore to enhance the
local gradient and continue windy conditions, especially along the
coast Wednesday. The strong onshore flow will continue and an
extension to the Wind Advisory through Wednesday will likely be
necessary. Winds inland will be comparably less than along the coast
but frequent gusts are likely to reach the 35-40 mph while coastal
areas may reach top gusts near 45-50 mph. By Thursday, winds will be
remain breezy to gusty but the gradients will slowly decompress as
the strong surface high shifts off to the northeast allowing winds
to ease up.

Gloomy, windy conditions Wednesday will also be accompanied with
rain, mainly across coastal NE FL as some low level moisture and
convergent flow interact with lift offered by another passing
shortwave moving through the broader cyclonic mid level flow. Though
convergent flow will keep some shower activity along the coast
through Thursday the departing wave and the backside subsidence
should lean towards drier conditions for the rest of the area.

Due the cloudy, gloomy, rainy conditions temperatures will be on the
cool side again Wednesday with highs in the low 70s. Some warming is
expected inland as skies break into filtered sunshine in the
afternoon allowing highs to push into the mid/upper 70s while the
cast remains in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy onshore winds Friday
- Warming temperatures and sunny conditions this weekend

Another area of surface high pressure trekking across the Great
Lakes and then off to the northeast US coast through the
weekend. This will continue the onshore breeziness through
Friday but winds will begin to gradually decline as upper
ridging begins to build overhead through the weekend and
gradients decompress. As heights rise aloft, it`ll kick off a
warming trend over the weekend with inland temperatures rising
back to the mid 80s for highs. Strong subsidence and a dry
airmass aloft will keep conditions rain free through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Primarily MVFR conditions are continuing early this morning, with
the exception of SSI. This trend is expected to continue throughout
the day today in addition to periods of light rain showers,
especially at northeast FL terminals. Onshore flow will also
strengthen today, with sustained winds of 20 knots or greater
expected as well as frequent gusts to 30 knots or higher. Showers
look to generally subside this evening at least for a short period,
which will allow for breaks in the MVFR ceilings at times,
especially north and west of SGJ.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure ridging down the southeastern seaboard will be
reinforced this morning, with strong onshore winds then
continuing through the week and intensifying to Gale Force today
through Wednesday night. The strong winds with a long fetch
will build seas to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday.
Winds will gradually weaken through Thursday and Friday as high
pressure moves away before much improved conditions developing
this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

An initial surge of northeast winds this morning will lead to High
Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this
afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip
currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected
Wednesday and surf is expected to build to 10-13 feet during this
period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life-
threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high
breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough
surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Substantial, long duration wind event will begin today with the
windiest conditions along the coast where a Wind Advisory is in
effect Today for gusts 40-50 mph. Farther inland Red Flag conditions
are expected as dry air, gusty winds, and high dispersion will align
this afternoon. Elsewhere, higher humidity is expected. Stronger
high pressure will build from the north Wednesday, increasing winds
further on Wednesday allowing afternoon gusts to reach near 40 mph
inland. Despite humidity values above critical, windy conditions
will influence any existing or new ignition. Waves of light rain are
expected through Wednesday but accumulating rainfall will generally
be less than half an inch and focus mostly across northeast FL.
Winds will finally begin to relax Friday into the weekend as
temperatures trend warmer and humidity lower.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  51  70  50 /  20   0  10  20
SSI  70  60  67  59 /  50  10  40  30
JAX  70  58  70  58 /  70  20  60  40
SGJ  70  62  72  63 /  90  50  80  60
GNV  67  57  72  58 /  70  30  60  40
OCF  68  60  72  61 /  70  20  70  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ038-124-125-132-137-138-233-325-333-433-533-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for GAZ154-166.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ132>135-149.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450-
     452-454-470-472-474.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$