Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 2:24 AM

AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
213 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Heavy Rainfall & Flooding: Unseasonably rich moisture and
  multiple disturbances will produce rounds of heavy rain through
  midweek. A Flood Watch is in effect today along the coast. This
  is where the highest amounts, 2-4 inches, are expected through
  Thursday. A low chance (10-20%) of 6+ inches also exists from
  Daytona Beach to Palm Bay.

- Strong Winds & Coastal Hazards: Wind gusts will increase from
  north to south today, reaching 35-45 mph at times through
  Wednesday. There is a small chance for peak gusts of around 50
  mph on the Volusia and Brevard coasts today and tonight. These
  winds will generate dangerous 9-12 ft surf, resulting in minor
  to moderate beach erosion and numerous life-threatening rip
  currents.

- Isolated Storms: While widespread severe weather is not
  expected, a few lightning storms are forecast today and
  Wednesday. A few storms south of Melbourne could become strong
  this afternoon, producing localized wind gusts up to 50 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Confidence remains high in the evolution of the weather pattern
over the next couple of days, leading to multiple weather impacts
across Central Florida. 06/05Z mesoanalysis places a convectively-
influenced stationary surface trough near Lake Okeechobee. Another
diffuse boundary, marked by a moisture discontinuity, is near
Ocala. Unseasonably high moisture is present over much of the
district, with PW values in excess of 1.5", which is above the
90th percentile.

Looking upstream, GOES water vapor imagery reveals a well-defined
shortwave tracking through the eastern Gulf on the nose of an
approaching subtropical jet streak. Its presence is already being
felt as it forces synoptic ascent over the Florida Peninsula
today. The weak boundaries mentioned above may reorganize and
sharpen near or north of I-4 this morning, with perhaps even a
mesoscale low developing along the east coast of Florida. Later
today, the front sinks southward as continental high pressure
pushes into the Northeast U.S. The expected boundary layer mass
response is quite remarkable, with most members still showing
H925 (2.5 kft) winds increasing to over 50 kt immediately north of
the stalled front. Enhanced northeasterly winds over 35 kt at
H925 are forecast to persist through at least Wednesday.

By Wednesday, the front is expected to have settled over the
southern tip of Florida. Strong onshore flow in the boundary
layer is expected to persist for some time. Additional jet stream
energy is slated to arrive on Wednesday afternoon or night,
likely interacting with the above-normal moisture in place over
the area through at least Thursday. Low-level convergence will
remain maximized at the coast due to frictional effects.

Beginning Friday and into the weekend, mid-level ridging builds over
the Eastern U.S., slowly pushing this disturbance into the Atlantic
while also allowing drier air to move southward into Florida.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Through Thursday...

Excessive Rainfall:

Heavy rain is ongoing early this morning, especially along
portions of the coast, and trends are being monitored for some
flooding. Additional Flood Advisories may be required. This event
has already brought some heavy rainfall tallies, particularly in
portions of Volusia and Brevard counties where isolated 3-5" amounts
have been measured. Guidance still places a higher threat for
additional heavy amounts along the coast, particularly over the next
12-18 hours, due to better convergence and close proximity to the
surface trough. This necessitated a Flood Watch for all coastal
counties through this evening. As the front slides southward tonight
and into Wednesday morning, we may see a brief lull in the heaviest
activity, but any showers over saturated locations will need to be
monitored closely.

A secondary ripple of energy arriving on Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday will provide another opportunity for showers and
storms. Yet again, with the strong onshore flow, the coast will
have the greatest potential for localized flooding.

Most likely rainfall amounts from 1-3" are forecast over the
interior through Thursday, with upwards of 2-4" along the
coast. Over Volusia and Brevard counties, there is a 10-20%
chance of 6"+ additional rainfall. These high-end values,
while expected to occur on a more isolated basis, may overcome
the drought-stricken soil to cause flooding. This is especially
the case in urban and poorly drained communities. Residents and
visitors are reminded never to drive through flooded roads. The risk
for nocturnally-enhanced rain makes flooding especially dangerous!

Thunderstorms:

While instability appears limited, enough exists for occasional
lightning storms over the next couple of days. Modest effective
shear may overlap with better instability from near Melbourne
and points southward this afternoon to support a couple of strong
storms with wind gusts to around 50 mph as the front passes.

Wind:

The timing of the arrival of the strong gradient winds over
the area is determined by how quickly the surface front moves
southward today. Immediately to its north, and once it passes
your location, those north-northeasterly gusts will quickly pick up.
While low-level lapse rates are not overly impressive, 45-50 mph
winds at 1500 feet off the ground will not be difficult to mix to
the surface. We have issued a Wind Advisory that expands southward
during the day, reaching Martin County just after sunset.

The highest probabilities for wind gusts over 45 mph today and
tonight (40-70%) reside from Orlando to Melbourne and northward,
and there is a low chance (15-20%) of peak gusts over 50 mph at
the immediate Volusia and Brevard coasts. The Wind Advisory will
likely need to be extended into Wednesday as well, as
probabilities for wind gusts over 35 mph exceed 50% over almost
the entire area.

Those with lightweight outdoor items should secure them before the
winds pick up today. A few power outages may result if tree limbs
fall on lines. Breezy conditions will persist on Thursday as well,
though the winds should not be quite as potent as they will be
over the next two days.

Beaches:

The sudden surge of strong to gale-force onshore winds is
going to rapidly build seas on the Atlantic, causing high
surf to develop at our beaches from north to south between this
morning and tonight. In stages, a High Surf Advisory will go into
effect. Numerous deadly rip currents are likely as breakers peak
at 9 to 12 feet on Wednesday. During each high tide, run-up to
the dune line may cause minor to moderate erosion. If visiting
the beach, never turn your back on the water. Stay out of the ocean.

Friday - Next Weekend...

This pattern slowly but surely breaks down as we move through Friday
and Saturday. Breezy conditions persist with scattered showers
and storms on Friday (20-30%), lessening to isolated coverage on
Saturday (10-20%). Most places should be dry by Sunday and next
Monday as high pressure takes control.

Beach conditions will likely remain dangerous, with rough surf and
numerous rip currents continuing.

Temperatures will start to turn warmer, reaching the upper 70s to
low 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A stalled front sits over the waters this morning. It sharpens today
before slowly moving toward South Florida. In its wake, gale-force
wind gusts are likely to develop over the waters. Dangerous boating
conditions are expected to arrive from north to south, with these
conditions persisting through Wednesday and Thursday. Numerous
showers and storms are forecast through Thursday as well. Seas
will only slowly subside as fresh onshore winds continue to the
south of high pressure over the Northeast U.S. late this week.

Winds increasing to NE 20-30 kt with frequent gale force
gusts, first over the Volusia waters by midday before spreading
southward. Gale-force gusts will be possible through Wednesday, but
strong gusts continue into Thursday as well. Extremely rough
conditions on the intracoastal through midweek once the strong gusts
reach any given point on the coast. Seas building to 10-18 ft at
their peak by Wednesday night, only subsiding to 8-11 feet by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Frontal boundary is forecast to remain nearly stationary
across central Florida through early morning before
shifting farther southward this Tuesday afternoon. Will continue to
see high coverage of showers and embedded storms overnight as
convective elements feel upper support imparted by approaching
shortwave trough in the Gulf. Repeated rounds of rain, with
increasing coverage of onshore moving showers and potentially some
storms forecast overnight through Tuesday, with threat of
locally heavy rainfall, especially along the coast where heavier
bands of showers and storms develop and persist. Prevailing MVFR
cigs will continue to build southward behind the front, with ocnl
IFR cigs possible.

Winds will be N/NE up to 10-15 knots north of the front thru Tue
morning (KMLB northward), and E/NE 5-8 knots to the south. As front
shifts south Tue, N/NE winds increase significantly and become quite
windy, especially north of the Treasure Coast. Wind speeds are
forecast to increase 20-25 knots sustained with gusts 30-35 knots.
Some of the MOS guidance is even higher, however, and will have to
be monitored for further increases in future TAF updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  64  72  64 /  90  50  80  60
MCO  70  64  71  65 /  90  40  80  60
MLB  75  67  75  67 /  90  60  80  80
VRB  77  67  75  66 /  90  70  80  80
LEE  70  62  73  63 /  80  30  80  50
SFB  71  63  73  64 /  90  50  80  60
ORL  71  64  73  64 /  90  40  80  60
FPR  77  66  75  66 /  90  60  80  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-247-
     254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     FLZ041-141.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight
     for FLZ044>046-053-144.

     Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight
     for FLZ058.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for FLZ141.

     High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for FLZ154-647-747.

     Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     FLZ154-159-254-259.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for FLZ159-164.

     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     FLZ164-264.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     FLZ247-347-447-547-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     FLZ347-447.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ550-570.

     Gale Warning from noon today to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT this afternoon
     for AMZ552.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ552-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ555-575.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ572.

&&

$$