Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 2:39 AM

AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
131 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

 - Fire weather concerns today given the gusty winds and dry air
   combined with the ongoing severe to extreme drought.

 - HIGH rip current risk for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida
   beaches late Tuesday night through Friday. High surf with 5-7ft
   breakers are likely Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Strong marine winds and high seas continue over the Gulf waters
   through Thursday with gusts to gale-force expected over the
   offshore waters on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Deep upper troughing will continue across the eastern US with drier
northwesterly flow across our area. A stalled frontal boundary
remains just off the coast through the day today. This boundary is
expected to just sit offshore over the next few days as a couple
weak shortwaves move through the flow. With each passing shortwave,
we will expect the surface pressure gradient to strengthen leading
to a couple days of rather blustery winds as surface high pressure
strengthens over the Carolinas. Other than some gusty winds and
heightened fire risk today, temperatures will be on the mild side
behind the front with highs in the mid to upper 70s through
Thursday. Once we get past midweek, High pressure will quickly build
into the area by the weekend leading to dry conditions as
temperatures warm back into the mid 80s. These conditions will
likely not be good for our already ongoing drought as we will likely
not see any appreciable rain through early next week.

Coastal Hazards... One thing to watch throughout the week will be
the potential for some coastal hazards including increasing rip
currents and high surf. Current surf heights are expected to reach 5
to 7 feet which may also result in minor coastal runup on some of
the barrier islands through mid-week. A HIGH risk of rip currents
and a high surf advisory are now in effect. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. North
wind around 5-10 knots will turn more easterly overnight and into
Tuesday. Occasional wind gusts to 20 knots are expected through
the day on Tuesday. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist into the
morning behind a cold front that passed through area waters. This
strong offshore flow will relax slightly and turn easterly by
Tuesday afternoon before increasing once again late Tuesday night.
Moderate to very strong easterly winds will persist through Friday.
A Gale Warning is now in effect for open the Gulf waters out 20 to
60 nm beginning late Tuesday night. BB-8

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Potential for dangerous burning conditions will exist today
as gusty easterly winds coupled with dry antecedent drought
conditions. Given the strengthening surface gradient, wind gusts
will likely reach the 20 to 25 mph range with sustained winds around
10 to 15 mph. Relative humidity values are expected to drop to
around 25-30% or just above critical thresholds. We are right on the
verge of needing Red Flag warnings and despite not reaching exact
criteria the potential for dangerous fire conditions and rapid
growth will still exist. We will have to keep an eye on
conditions this afternoon and if they trend slightly more
concerning then a Red Flag Warning may be needed by the morning.
BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  55  76  56 /   0   0  10  10
Pensacola   78  58  75  58 /   0   0  10  20
Destin      75  58  74  57 /   0   0  20  20
Evergreen   78  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  10
Waynesboro  77  50  76  53 /   0   0   0  10
Camden      76  50  74  50 /   0   0  10  10
Crestview   78  51  75  52 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Thursday
     night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Thursday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
     Thursday for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ670-675.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ670-
     675.

&&

$$