Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 4:39 AM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
429 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to wax and wane
  across the Keys coastal waters today and tonight.

- Bouts of wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday
  or Wednesday night, with less confidence in rainfall coverage
  for Thursday.

- Near the end of the week, breezy to possibly windy conditions
  may return, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
Individuals in the Florida Keys might have woken overnight to a
light show taking place over Florida Bay. Confluence between a
southward moving frontal boundary over Southern Florida and
environmental southerly winds resulted in heavy showers,
thunderstorms, and messy winds north of the island chain. Radar
derived rainfall totals estimated over two inches of precipitation
fell in three hours over portions of the bayside waters. Near the
island chain, showers were not as organized. MRMS estimates
placed over an inch of rainfall over central Key Largo. However,
as of the early morning hours both the Lower and Middle Keys have
been spared widespread rainfall. That may change today as the
frontal boundary slowly sinks south. The problem is this pattern
is very uncertain, even for the next 24 hours.

A stalled front north of the Keys usually means widespread
rainfall. However, the pressure gradient over the Florida Keys is
weak. There is not a well defined pressure center in the
Caribbean, and the high pressure system pushing the front south
does not show signs of moving further south than Lake Erie.
Instead, a secondary low developing along the front is probably
what will cause the boundary to move away from the Keys. Put
simply, there is not that much organized forcing in this pattern.
Attempt to time where and when showers will develop are going to
depend on local to mesoscale effects, which means model guidance
can and will be wrong. Watch the radar, watch for any warnings,
and keep an eye out for any lightning strikes.

Low to medium confidence defines the forecast through Friday to
Saturday. Shower coverage depends on the location and intensity of
the frontal system and any adjacent low pressure centers. However,
there are a few points of confidence. A secondary low developing
east of the Florida Peninsula will support fresh to strong breezes
north of the Outer Gulf waters, so there is high confidence in
stronger than normal north swell in the western waters. The
location of this low would also delay the onset of breezy to windy
conditions over the Keys. Finally, the lower to mid level winds
will keep directing moisture-laden air across the island chain.
Dew points are forecast to linger near 70 for the rest of the
week. Brace for waxing and waning showers for most of the work
week, which given the drier conditions, is a relief.

Once the frontal boundary moves away from the Keys, there is
increasing confidence in a prolonged period of breezy to windy
conditions this weekend. Exactly when breezes will freshen is not
certain, and numerical guidance indicates a nearly 20 mph spread
between the 10th and 90th percentiles on Friday. In terms of
showers, once the frontal system moves away from the coastline,
more drier air will move towards the Keys. All we can say with
confidence is that weather this week will be active.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida
Keys coastal waters. A frontal boundary stalled north of the
Florida Keys will be responsible for light to variable breezes,
disorganized winds, and scattered to numerous showers across the
nearshore waters. Thunderstorm chances are expected to decrease
Wednesday. Breezes are forecast to freshen late in the week to the
weekend, but confidence is low due to uncertainty in where and
when the frontal boundary moves south of the Keys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms will wax and wane near
both EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Near surface winds
will slowly veer from southeasterlies to westerlies with
occaisional gusts. Showers are slow moving, and could form longer
periods of MVFR CIGs. There is not high enough confidence to
include a TEMPO at this time, but areas around the terminals may
have MVFR to IFR CIGs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  70  80  71 /  50  40  40  30
Marathon  80  71  81  72 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$