Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 6:39 AM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
630 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 629 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- A critical combination of wind, low humidity, and dry fuels is
  forecast today, mainly over part of southwest Georgia and the
  eastern Florida Panhandle. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

- Strong northeast to east winds are expected through Thursday.
  The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday, when gusts of
  35-40 mph may eventually necessitate a Wind Advisory. Over the
  Gulf waters, a Gale Warning is in effect for tonight through
  Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Satellite imagery shows a southern stream shortwave making headway
across the far eastern Gulf and the FL Peninsula. As it exits this
morning, the bits of light rain currently over the Big Bend region
will fade, and skies will clear out.

Our winds will really pick up today. Pressure gradients will get
squeezed and tighten as strong continental high pressure near the
Great Lakes bridges south, while surface pressures lower over far
South Florida and the Bahamas. Daytime wind gusts of 25-30 mph
will be common today, with 35 mph expected in exposed and
localized places. Guidance maintains the strongest 925 mb winds
today near the Lower Suwannee and northern Nature Coast, perhaps
flirting with gusts near the 40 mph Wind Advisory criteria over
Dixie County.

Further north and northwest, where the northeasterly winds will not
include a trajectory over the Atlantic, the air mass will dry out. A
ribbon of dewpoints in the 30s and possibly the upper 20s will nose
in across Southwest Georgia and the FL Panhandle, setting up a
critical fire weather combo of wind and RH in a narrow corridor.
Given long-term drought impacts and the dry wind, fuels will have a
short "memory" of recent rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Pressure gradient and wind potential will peak on Wednesday. Wind
Advisories may eventually be needed. Multiple pieces of MOS guidance
show sustained winds approaching 25 mph around late morning, as
thermal mixing taps into stronger winds aloft. 925 mb winds in the
morning around 35-40 knots suggests surface gusts of 35-40 mph
should be expected.

Meanwhile, the last in a series of southern stream shortwaves will
pass by across the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula on Wednesday and
Wed Night. It may draw some rain as far north as our FL and far
south GA counties, where the forecast maintains low rain chances (20-
40 percent).

Winds will still be elevated on Thursday but will start to trend
downward. High pressure to the north will start to weaken, and low
pressure over the Bahamas will start to lift out northeast into the
open Atlantic.

Friday through Monday will feature an amplifying and strengthening
500 mb ridge axis directly over the forecast area, extending from
the Southwest Gulf to the Carolinas. This will squash any rain
chances, and temperatures will rebound to above normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Northeasterly winds sustained around 10-15 kts will be gusting up
to 30 kts later this morning through the afternoon hours. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusts are expected
to lessen during the overnight hours, but is expected to pickup
again after daybreak on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Rough conditions are expected on the Gulf waters until Friday.
Through Wednesday evening, the pressure gradient will tighten
between strong high pressure to the north and a broad area of low
pressure over South Florida and the Bahamas. This will support
strong to gale-force winds over the waters. Low pressure will
finally start to move east on Thursday, and high pressure to the
north will start to weaken. So gradual improvement is expected
later Thursday through Friday. On Saturday, a bubble of high
pressure over the coastal Carolinas will support gentle to
moderate easterlies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Strong northeast to east winds will prevail through Thursday. The
strongest gusts of 35-40 mph are expected on Wednesday, though
today will be a close runner-up for strongest winds. Against the
backdrop of windy conditions, today will also feature a narrow
ribbon of drier air from Southwest Georgia into the Florida
Panhandle. This will set up a critical combination of wind and low
humidity within an area where we have issued a Red Flag Warning.
From Friday through the weekend, northeast to easterly winds will
slowly trend downward. A warming and drying trend will be underway
from Friday through the weekend and strong upper level high
pressure builds across the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

No hydrologically significant rainfall is expected for the next 7
days. Therefore, no flooding is expected. Drought conditions will
persist or worsen.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  55  72  55 /  10   0  20  20
Panama City   79  57  76  57 /   0   0  20  30
Dothan        76  52  72  51 /   0   0  10  20
Albany        77  52  72  50 /   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      74  54  71  53 /  20   0  20  20
Cross City    68  56  72  57 /  60  10  40  30
Apalachicola  70  59  72  59 /  20   0  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ008>014-016-017-108-112-
     326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115.

GA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for GAZ125-127>131-143>148-155>159.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775.

     Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday to 8 AM EDT /7
     AM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for GMZ751.

&&

$$