Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 7:39 AM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
736 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Local NorEaster Conditions Through Thursday. Gale Force Winds
Across the Coastal Waters Throught Wednesday Night. Life Threatening
Coastal Hazards through the End of the Week. Frequent, Strong Rip
Currents and Rough Surf (up to 13 ft Wed/Thurs). Minor Beach Erosion
Possible. Waves of Beneficial Rain For Coastal Northeast FL Through
Wed Night

- High Fire Danger For Inland Southeast GA this Afternoon

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Windy Coastal Conditions through Tonight

- High Risk of Rip Currents

- Critical fire weather conditions over inland GA

- Isolated thunderstorms possible for portions of Northeast FL


The region will be between an inverted trough to the south and
strong high pressure to the north through Tonight. The gradient
between these two weather features will result in elevated and gusty
winds, especially at the coast. Weak troughs will develop in the
onshore flow and move ashore this period, bringing shower potential.
The overall coverage of the rain will shrink to focus more on
coastal areas Tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Windy Conditions Wednesday and Breezy/Gusty Thursday

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

A robust surface high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard
will work in concert with an inverted trough offshore to enhance the
local gradient and continue windy conditions, especially along the
coast Wednesday. The strong onshore flow will continue and an
extension to the Wind Advisory through Wednesday will likely be
necessary. Winds inland will be comparably less than along the coast
but frequent gusts are likely to reach the 35-40 mph while coastal
areas may reach top gusts near 45-50 mph. By Thursday, winds will be
remain breezy to gusty but the gradients will slowly decompress as
the strong surface high shifts off to the northeast allowing winds
to ease up.

Gloomy, windy conditions Wednesday will also be accompanied with
rain, mainly across coastal NE FL as some low level moisture and
convergent flow interact with lift offered by another passing
shortwave moving through the broader cyclonic mid level flow. Though
convergent flow will keep some shower activity along the coast
through Thursday the departing wave and the backside subsidence
should lean towards drier conditions for the rest of the area.

Due the cloudy, gloomy, rainy conditions temperatures will be on the
cool side again Wednesday with highs in the low 70s. Some warming is
expected inland as skies break into filtered sunshine in the
afternoon allowing highs to push into the mid/upper 70s while the
cast remains in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy onshore winds Friday
- Warming temperatures and sunny conditions this weekend

Another area of surface high pressure treking across the Great Lakes
and then off to the northeast US coast through the weekend. This
will continue the onshore breeziness through Friday but winds will
begin to gradually decline as upper ridging begins to build overhead
through the weekend and gradients decompress. As heights rise aloft,
it`ll kick off a warming trend over the weekend with inland
temperatures rising back to the mid 80s for highs. Strong subsidence
and a dry airmass aloft will keep conditions rain free through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions in stratus and rain to continue this morning into the
afternoon. A brief break in restrictions is expected this evening,
before the lower stratus returns Tonight.

Winds will be elevated and gusty throughout this period.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure ridging down the southeastern seaboard will be
reinforced this morning, with strong onshore winds then continuing
through the week and intensifying to Gale Force today through
Wednesday night. The strong winds with a long fetch will build seas
to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will gradually
weaken through Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves away
before much improved conditions developing this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

An initial surge of northeast winds this morning will lead to High
Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this
afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip
currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected
Wednesday and surf is expected to build to 10-13 feet during this
period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life-
threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high
breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough
surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS
- Of Inland Southeast Ga

     NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA WEDNESDAY
- And Windy Conditions Areawide

     HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS FOR INLAND SE GA TODAY BECOMING
- Widespread On Wednesday

Substantial, long duration wind event will begin today with the
windiest conditions along the coast where a Wind Advisory is in
effect Today for gusts 40-50 mph. Farther inland Red Flag conditions
are expected as dry air, gusty winds, and high dispersion will align
this afternoon. Elsewhere, higher humidity is expected. Stronger
high pressure will build from the north Wednesday, increasing winds
further on Wednesday allowing afternoon gusts to reach near 40 mph
inland. Despite humidity values above critical, windy conditions
will influence any existing or new ignition. Waves of light rain are
expected through Wednesday but accumulating rainfall will generally
be less than half an inch and focus mostly across northeast FL.
Winds will finally begin to relax Friday into the weekend as
temperatures trend warmer and humidity lower.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  51  70  50 /  20   0  10  20
SSI  70  60  67  59 /  50  10  40  30
JAX  70  58  70  58 /  70  20  60  40
SGJ  70  62  72  63 /  90  50  80  60
GNV  67  57  72  58 /  70  30  60  40
OCF  68  60  72  61 /  70  20  70  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038-124-125-
     132-137-138-233-325-333-433-533-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ132>135-149.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450-
     452-454-470-472-474.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-470-
     472-474.

&&

$$