Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 8:54 AM

AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
850 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High chances of rain continue through midweek.

- Gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue
  through at least Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will continue to move
east across the region exiting to the east by mid-afternoon.
Behind this activity it looks like it we will only see isolated
to low end scattered shower chances through tonight with skies
remaining mostly cloudy. Have tweaked rain chances up some for
this morning, otherwise remainder of forecast looks on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 850 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions will continue into early this afternoon with
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm moving across the
TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are then expected to persist through
tonight with a few more showers possible, but nothing widespread.
Northeast winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to
30 to 35 knots this afternoon into early tonight, then diminish to
10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts later this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Currently at the surface, the recent surface front is stalling out
over southern Florida and will slowly limp south and out of the area
today and tonight. Behind the front, an upper/mid level shortwave is
passing west to east across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight,
keeping deep moisture and unsettled weather in place. This feature
has been supporting lingering showers and a few storms overnight,
with periods of rain expected to continue throughout the day
today. The rainy pattern will continue on Wednesday and Thursday
as a surface low develops east of Florida and continues to pump
deep moisture into the area. While rain chances will be fairly
high across the area each day, the highest chances and rain totals
today through Thursday will generally be over the interior and
east of the forecast area.

Apart from the rain, the surface high pressure to the north is
setting up breezy northeast winds this week. The northeast winds
and cloudy skies are combining to bring in cooler conditions
today and Wednesday, with afternoon high temperatures running
about 5-10 degrees below normal. Temperatures will warm back up
Thursday through the end of the week as sunnier skies return.

This weekend through early next week, the surface ridge will shift
south into Florida, favoring warm and stable conditions. Afternoon
high temperatures will build back up into the 80s across the area,
with lower rain chances and sunny skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

High pressure building in north of the waters in the wake of the
recent cold front will keep breezy winds in place through the rest
of the week, with winds gusting to near gale force at times. The
Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for the coastal
waters north of Englewood, and will expand to include the
southern marine zones this afternoon. Winds and seas will begin to
improve Thursday night through the weekend, although easterly
winds could occasional surge back to exercise caution or advisory
levels at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

No humidity concerns as deep moisture brings numerous to
widespread showers and a few storms today and Wednesday. Breezy
winds will produce high dispersion indices each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  65  77  66 /  90  20  70  40
FMY  80  66  80  67 /  70  20  60  30
GIF  74  65  75  65 /  80  30  80  50
SRQ  76  64  78  66 /  90  20  60  30
BKV  73  60  75  61 /  90  20  70  40
SPG  76  68  78  68 /  90  20  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs
     to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$