Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 11:12 AM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1102 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to wax and wane
  across the forecast area today and tonight.

- Bouts of wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday
  or Wednesday night, with less confidence in rainfall coverage
  for Thursday.

- Near the end of the week, breezy to possibly windy conditions
  may return, and last through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
It has been a messy morning along the Keys, particularly for the
Upper Keys! Our proximity to the stalled frontal boundary over the
Florida peninsula is making for unsettled weather. Our KBYX radar
reflectivity suggests that most of the shower activity is light to
modestly moderate, but embedded pockets of stronger thunderstorms
have occurred this morning. Around 7 AM, a hefty thunderstorm
over Florida Bay crossed over the Key Largo area. Automated
surface observations reported wind gusts near 25 mph, and just
over an inch of rainfall in the hour between 7 AM and 8 AM. MRMS
12-hour totals estimate that most of the island chain has seen at
least a few hundredths of an inch of rain since showers first
developed early this morning, but the highest totals are limited
to the Upper Keys with totals up to almost 3 inches. Of note,
MRMS also suggests that some of the heaviest showers occurred over
the waters around the Upper Keys with estimated totals of almost
6 inches.

12Z SPC upper air analysis shows a deep trough extending into the
eastern Gulf and Florida area coupled with a low level low over
South Florida. The low level confluence is visible on the
satellite and radar overlay as showers associated with the low
level clouds across the area are moving from south to north, but
showers associated with mid level clouds are moving from west to
east. This is also a testament to the veering wind profile
observed on the 12Z KKEY sounding this morning. All of this is to
say that there is plenty of lift available for showers, and
occasionally thunderstorms, The caveat is determining coverage.
Closer to the boundary, coverage tends to be uniform. Current
radar loops show our coverage broken up, and this will likely
remain the case. Expect an on and off pattern with this activity.

The forecast is unfolding as expected, and no adjustments or
changes are needed at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, a frontal boundary
stalled north of the Florida Keys will be responsible for light to
variable breezes, and scattered to numerous showers across the
nearshore waters. However, seas will be elevated across western
marine zones due to a northwest swell. Thunderstorm chances are
expected to decrease Wednesday. Breezes are forecast to freshen
late in the week to the weekend, but confidence is low with regard
to timing due to uncertainty in where and when the frontal
boundary moves south of the Keys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
EYW will continue to see VFR conditions through the beginning of
the TAF period, but a mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs will prevail at MTH
due to SCT to BKN decks at, and above, FL015. Opting to keep the
prevailing flight category at MTH as MVFR. ON and off showers may
bring some light rainfall to either terminal throughout the
period, we will keep VCSH in the TAFs unless a more uniform shield
forms. Even though any individual shower may bring modestly gusty
conditions, surfaces winds will continue to be generally light and
variable. Cross wind concerns are at a minimum.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
Low to medium confidence defines the forecast through Friday to
Saturday. Shower coverage depends on the location and intensity of
the frontal system and any adjacent low pressure centers.
However, there are a few points of confidence. A secondary low
developing east of the Florida Peninsula will support fresh to
strong breezes north of the Outer Gulf waters, so there is high
confidence in stronger than normal north swell in the western
waters. The location of this low would also delay the onset of
breezy to windy conditions over the Keys. Finally, the lower to
mid level winds will keep directing moisture-laden air across the
island chain. Dew points are forecast to linger near 70 for the
rest of the week. Brace for waxing and waning showers for most of
the work week, which given the drier conditions, is a relief.

Once the frontal boundary moves away from the Keys, there is
increasing confidence in a prolonged period of breezy to windy
conditions this weekend. Exactly when breezes will freshen is not
certain, and numerical guidance indicates a nearly 20 mph spread
between the 10th and 90th percentiles on Friday. In terms of
showers, once the frontal system moves away from the coastline,
more drier air will move towards the Keys. All we can say with
confidence is that weather this week will be active.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  70  80  71 /  50  40  40  30
Marathon  80  71  81  72 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$