Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 1:27 PM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
123 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Local NorEaster Conditions Through Thursday. Gale Force Winds
Across the Coastal Waters Through Wednesday Night. Life Threatening
Coastal Hazards through the End of the Week. Frequent, Strong Rip
Currents and Rough Surf (up to 13 ft Wed/Thurs). Minor Beach Erosion
Possible. Gusty Winds Along the NE FL Coast/St Johns River. Waves of
Beneficial Rain For Coastal Northeast FL Through Wed Night

- High Fire Danger For Far Inland Southeast GA this Afternoon

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Isolated thunderstorms NE FL coast

- Elevated and Gusty winds, especially near the coast

- Red Flag Fire weather conditions Today inland NE FL

- High Surf and High Risk for Rip Currents


The region will be between an inverted trough to the south and
strong high pressure to the north through Tonight. The gradient
between these two weather features will result in elevated and gusty
winds, especially at the coast. Weak troughs will develop in the
onshore flow and move ashore this period, bringing shower potential.
The overall coverage of the rain will shrink to focus more on
coastal areas Tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Windy Conditions Wednesday and Breezy/Gusty Thursday

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

Elevated onshore flow persists through the forecast period as high
pressure continues to settle north of the region. We have extended
the Wind Advisory through Wednesday afternoon as winds are expected
to continue to increase and peak on Wednesday. Highest wind speeds
will be along coastal locations, with gusts possibly reaching to 40
to 45 mph. Winds will begin to lessen on Thursday, but will still
have breezy northeasterly winds with the high pressure moving more
towards the Atlantic. Showers will persist on Wednesday mainly over
NE FL, with a few embedded storms possible along the north central
FL counties. By Thursday, most shower activity will shift further
towards our southern locations of NE FL as these areas will have the
highest amounts of moisture aloft thanks to the continuing onshore
flow.

Daytime highs in the upper 60s to 70s through the forecast period,
with temperatures increasing slightly on Thursday as onshore flow
continues, but eases up from peak speeds of Wednesday. Overnight
Lows in the 50s across SE GA and lower 60s across NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy onshore winds Friday
- Warming temperatures and sunny conditions this weekend

Shower chances will begin to lessen as the weekend nears, but
onshore flow will continue as high pressure again sets up north of
the area before shifting towards the Atlantic. While breezy at
times, winds aren`t expected to be as elevated as during the middle
of the week. Temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend,
with upper 70s to mid 80s across the area, warmer temperatures away
from the coast as onshore flow keeps coastal locations relatively
cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will remain elevated and gusty this period, especially near
the coast.

Restrictions in stratus and rain will be possibly at times,
especially early in this period.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure ridging down the southeastern seaboard will be
reinforced this morning, with strong onshore winds then continuing
through the week and intensifying to Gale Force today through
Wednesday night. The strong winds with a long fetch will build seas
to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will gradually
weaken through Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves away
before much improved conditions developing this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

An initial surge of northeast winds this morning will lead to High
Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this
afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip
currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected
Wednesday and surf is expected to build to 10-13 feet during this
period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life-
threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high
breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough
surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS
- Of Inland Southeast Ga

     NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA WEDNESDAY
- And Windy Conditions Areawide

     HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS FOR INLAND SE GA TODAY BECOMING
- Widespread On Wednesday

Substantial, long duration wind event will begin today with the
windiest conditions along the northeast FL coast where a Wind
Advisory is in effect Today for gusts up to 40 mph. For inland
southeast GA, Red Flag conditions are expected as dry air, breezy
winds, and high dispersions will align this afternoon. Elsewhere,
higher humidity is expected. Stronger high pressure will build from
the north Wednesday, increasing winds further and allowing afternoon
gusts to reach 35-40 mph inland. Despite humidity values above
critical, windy conditions will influence any existing or new
ignition. Waves of light rain are expected through Wednesday but
accumulating rainfall will generally be less than half an inch and
focus mostly across northeast FL. Winds will finally begin to relax
Friday into the weekend as temperatures trend warmer and humidity
lower.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  72  50  76 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  60  67  58  70 /  20  30  30  20
JAX  60  71  58  73 /  30  50  30  30
SGJ  63  71  63  73 /  60  70  60  50
GNV  58  73  58  77 /  20  60  30  30
OCF  60  74  61  77 /  30  70  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ038-124-125-138-
     233-325-333-433-533-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>135-
     149.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-470-
     472-474.

&&

$$