Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 1:39 PM

AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
131 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine Hazards have been updated. Majority of Gale Watches have
been upgraded to Warnings. Timing of existing SCAs have been
adjusted.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A dry cold front will bring below normal temperatures and
elevated winds to ENC through midweek.

2) Warming trend and and mostly dry weather forecast to follow
the front. Well above normal temperatures this weekend and into
next week.

3) Stiff winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore will
build seas mid to late week. Good chance of High Surf criteria
being met with potential for wave run up and ocean overwash
concerns for vulnerable portions of the OBX.

Marine...Behind a dry cold front the pressure gradient tightens
bringing a threat for a mix of gales and small craft advisory
conditions to our area waters starting tonight and continuing
into Wednesday. Sea driven SCAs to follow the gales for coastal
waters potentially into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High cirrus will continue to stream in across
the Carolinas through the morning in association with a low
pressure system in the Gulf given the steady SW flow aloft. A dry
cold front will track across the Carolinas and push offshore
tonight with the low pressure in the Gulf then riding ENEwards
along this boundary on WED. At the same time, a strong high
pressure ridge will build into the Northeast. The combination of
the strong high and departing front/ low will bring a rather
strong pressure gradient to the area bringing cool NEerly winds
to ENC. Winds may approach wind advisory criteria across the
Core Banks, but this seems fairly marginal at this time, so have
opted not to go with a headline here, but following shift may
have to take another look at this possibility. Given the
direction of the winds this will bring a relatively cool
maritime airmass over ENC keeping temps below avg through Wed as
high temps only get into the upper 50s to 60s today and then
mid 50s to 60s on WED.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mid to late week, low pressure passes offshore,
though there are quite a few differences in depth of the low
and how close to coast it gets before departing Eward out to
sea. Some global guidance solutions keep the low further out to
sea and suggest some subtle coastal troughing to develop across
the Carolina Coast THU and FRI. Regardless of which solution
ends up right, at least a SChc of light offshore showers
skirting the coast from Oregon Inlet S through the Crystal Coast
through FRI afternoon. Building low level thicknesses through
the end of the work week allows warming temps despite the light
NEerly flow regime, upper 60s THU, mid 70s FRI. SUN afternoon,
stout SFC high rotates off the Mid- Atlantic coast, veering
local winds more Eerly SUN to become Serly early next week
allowing further warming; MaxTs into the upper 80s at the end of
the forecast period (next TUE).

KEY MESSAGE 3...The strong NEerly winds over ENC and low
pressure passing offshore which will further build long period
swell that will approach the coast will lead to building seas.
This swell could lead to wave runup concerns and ocean overwash
at particularly vulnerable locations along the OBX coast from
Oregon Inlet S through Cape Lookout starting WED. How long the
stronger swell hits the coast will be dependent on track and
depth of the low, but could potentially last into late-week, and
maybe even the weekend if the more pessimistic solutions play
out. Adding this threat to the HWO product, but have opted not
to go with a High Surf advisory nor any coastal flood headlines
until we get a feel for where the front sets up once it sinks
S of the FA, and therefor where the low will track.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR flight cats are expected through the period. Winds have
veered to the northeast and continue to do so through the day,
peaking this afternoon/evening at 10-15 kt as a dry cold front
has moved offshore. BKN to OVC mid and high clouds will stick
around until late tonight when skies will clear. Wednesday
gusty NE winds around 20 knots are expected, inreasing to 25-35
knots along the coast, highest over Ocracoke and Core Banks.

Outlook: Pred VFR expected through Friday with high pressure over
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively benign boating conditions come to an end today as dry
cold front sinks S across area waters. The front is forecast to
push offshore by this afternoon and continue south tonight.
While at the same time, low pressure currently in the Gulf
eventually rides along this front and a strong high pressure
ridge builds in from the N. Winds will quickly become N-NEerly
and increase to 20-30 kts with gusts up around 30-40 kts across
our waters bringing a mix of gale force and SCA criteria winds.
All coastal water gale watches from Oregon Inlet S and the
Pamlico Sound have been upgraded to Gale Warnings. SCAs in place
for all other waters. Seas will build given the elevated winds,
seas forecast to peak at 7-12ft@8-9sec with wind waves on top of
it, highest seas over the Gulfstream where swell direction will
oppose the current.

Outlook: Once these hazardous conditions develop expect
continued strong NE winds at 15-20 kts with gusts up around
25-30 kts across our waters from Wed evening into the end of
the week as the pressure gradient will remain pinched between
the aforementioned high and front/low. Seas will remain 6+ ft
into the weekend as well. While Gales are forecast to come to
an end by late WED, SCAs will continue into the weekend at
least across our coastal waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ136.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT Wednesday
     night for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$