Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 1:39 PM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Key Messages:

* There is a low to moderate (30-60%) chance of isolated to
  scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two starting
  tomorrow through Saturday. The best chances are Thursday and
  Friday.

* Rain totals between tomorrow and Saturday should be lower than
  last weekend, with the most likely amounts ranging between 0.25
  to 1 inch. Some areas may not see precipitation at all.

* Gradual warming is expected into early next week ahead of
  another approaching system. Conditions could become windier
  early next week as the pressure gradient tightens.

* There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents
  tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A series of small mid-level shortwave disturbances are expected to
move through the region starting tomorrow which will result in
increased atmospheric instability and a low to medium chance (30-
60%) of showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms through
Saturday. Early CAM guidance suggests that it will be mostly showery
convection and more isolated to scattered than widespread, with a
low 20-30% chance of showers forming on Wednesday. A thunderstorm
or two is also possible, and the Storm Prediction Center does
include Deep South Texas under a general thunderstorm risk for
both tomorrow and Thursday. At this time, nothing severe is
expected.

The strongest small shortwaves are expected on Thursday and
Friday, which will produce the best rain chances of the week.
Guidance continues to trend upwards on likelihood, increasing to a
40-60% chance for both afternoons. Again, early CAM reflectivity
simulations seem to indicate mostly isolated showers, but a few
non-severe thunderstorms are possible on these days as well,
perhaps a little moreso than Wednesday. Rain chances decrease
back to 20-40% on Saturday as the strongest of these shortwaves
move offshore with a few lingering showers.

Rain totals over the next few days are not expected to be as
significant as they were last weekend, and rainfall is not
expected to be as widespread. According to NBM DESI guidance, the
most likely amount that areas of Deep South Texas might see
between Wednesday and Saturday is between 0.25 and 1 inch.
However, precipitation totals could range anywhere between 0.1 and
1.5 inches, with no excess rainfall expected. Due to the isolated
to scattered nature of the expected convection, some areas may
not receive any precipitation at all.

Current NBM guidance suggests that conditions should dry out again
Sunday through Tuesday of next week. However, long-range guidance
(such as the GFS and the Euro) concur that a Pacific trough will
move across the Central/Southern Plains between the beginning and
middle of next week. This could potentially change the early week
forecast as we move closer to that timeframe, depending on the
strength and speed of the system.

Temperatures should warm back to seasonal levels by tomorrow and
continue to warm through early next week ahead of the next major
trough expected sometime next week. This could bring another
front to the area, which will be something to keep an eye on as
the longer range forecast evolves. At this time, guidance
suggests it would occur sometime after Tuesday if it does happen.
However, Deep South Texas can expect increasingly windy conditions
on Monday and Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of
the approaching system.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues
through tonight and tomorrow. Remember, most drowning deaths in
our area occur on days when the risk is moderate rather than high
because surf looks a little more inviting to swim. Area beachgoers
will want to remain vigilant.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected the rest of the afternoon with
easterly winds. Overnight around 06z, ceilings will likely lower
to MVFR and return to VFR by around 15z. A Prob30 has been added
to the end of the TAF period due to the increased chance for
showers tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Conditions should stay favorable through the weekend with
light to medium winds and low to moderate seas.  The exception would
be in the vicinity of any heavier rain showers or thunderstorms that
happen to form offshore over the next few days. SCEC conditions are
possible again by the end of the weekend into early next week as a
pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching Pacific through
from the West.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             66  80  68  83 /  30  30  20  50
HARLINGEN               62  81  65  84 /  20  30  20  50
MCALLEN                 66  83  69  85 /  20  40  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY         63  82  68  84 /  10  40  40  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      70  76  72  78 /  20  30  20  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     66  80  68  82 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$