Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 2:57 PM

AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High rain chances continue through Thursday.

- Gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue
  through at least Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Upper level shortwave moving across the region brought some
widespread rainfall to the region this morning. This wave will be
exiting to the east shortly with subsidence behind it bringing an
end to most of the rain. A few light showers will remain possible
through tonight, but overall it looks like we`ll see mainly just
a lot of clouds with breezy conditions thanks to the strong high
pressure over the northeast states. Some more showers and possibly
a thunderstorm will develop during Wednesday and move west
southwest into the forecast area around midday and continue into
the evening. Thursday looks similar as the high will drift out
into the western Atlantic Ocean, but continue to ridge southwest
into the southeast states with the breeze northeast to east winds
persisting. More scattered to numerous showers and possibly a
thunderstorm are expected, with the highest rain chances during
the afternoon and evening hours.

For Friday, winds will diminish some with drier air moving into
the region limiting rain chances. Only some isolated afternoon
and evening showers are expected over the interior and southwest
Florida. From Saturday into early next week a warm and dry pattern
returns, but the northeast to east flow will persist and we`ll see
winds increase each evening for a few hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through Wednesday morning
and could see some areas of IFR ceilings at times later tonight
into Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers will wind
down later this afternoon and evening, then move back in from the
east around midday Wednesday. Northeast winds will increase to 15
to 20 knots with higher gusts this afternoon into early tonight
then diminish to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts later
tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

High pressure building in north of the waters in the wake of the
recent cold front will keep breezy winds in place through the rest
of the week, with winds gusting to near gale force at times. The
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters into
Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas will begin to improve Thursday
night through the weekend, although easterly winds could
occasional surge back to exercise caution or advisory levels at
times during the evening into early morning hours each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

No humidity concerns for the next few days as deep moisture brings
scattered to numerous showers to the region and a few storms through
Thursday. Breezy northeast to east winds will produce high dispersion
indices each afternoon through Thursday with relative humidity values
remaining above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  77  66  81 /  20  70  40  40
FMY  66  80  67  83 /  20  60  30  40
GIF  65  75  65  80 /  30  80  50  60
SRQ  64  78  66  81 /  20  60  30  30
BKV  60  75  61  80 /  20  70  40  40
SPG  68  78  68  82 /  20  60  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs
     to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$