Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 3:09 PM

AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
302 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

    - Dangerous Rip Currents will once again develop for the
      Atlantic Coast beaches this evening and they will remain in
      place through the end of the week.

    - Hazardous marine conditions will gradually develop heading
      into the evening hours across all local waters as winds and
      seas begin to increase. These hazardous conditions will
      remain in place through at least the middle of the week.

    - Localized flooding will be possible along the east coast
      through Wednesday. A Flood Watch remains in place for the
      east coast metro areas through 10 PM Wednesday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

While most areas across the region had a lull in shower and
thunderstorm activity during the late morning and early afternoon
hours, the next round of convection is beginning to develop as the
atmosphere has started to destabilize with peak diurnal heating.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across the region through the evening hours. Gusty winds and heavy
downpours are once again possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
The latest CAMs and hi-res guidance do suggest that another lull
in activity will develop across the region during the late
evening and overnight hours as the atmosphere stabilizes due to
loss of peak diurnal heating. While this lull may last into a
portion of the morning hours on Wednesday, another round of
convection will be possible heading into the afternoon hours.
While the exact location of where the stronger storms will set up
remains uncertain, there still remains enough potential in where
the east coast could see an additional widespread 1 to 2 inches
of rainfall through early Wednesday evening. Some of the hi-res
guidance continues to suggest that additional localized amounts
of 3 to 5 inches will be possible across portions of the east
coast where multiple rounds of heavy downpours will be possible
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Because of this, the
Flood Watch has been extended through Wednesday evening across
the east coast metro areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Deep moisture pooling ahead of a stalling front over central Florida
has allowed for scattered convection to linger across the Lake
Okeechobee region tonight. The recent KMFL upper air sounding shows
a pretty moist environment, both at the surface and aloft, with
precipitable water content of 1.57 inches (90th percentile for this
time of year). A long and skinny CAPE profile shows a conducive
environment for efficient rainfall, and current mesoanalysis still
shows modest instability of around 1500 J/kg across the southern
portion of the Peninsula. Southwestern Florida has already been
worked over from activity during the afternoon, so shower activity
should continue to dissipate there as a cooler and more stable air
mass remains. However, current upper level water vapor imagery shows
a complex of storm activity over the Gulf waters, associated with a
mid-level shortwave traversing across north Florida. This shortwave
looks to make its way across the peninsula through the morning hours
on Tuesday. Vorticity advected from this shortwave will help
invigorate scattered shower activity across South Florida, but the
exact timing and location of showers is still a bit uncertain given
the spread among hi-res model guidance.

Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms is unlikely through the morning for
the southwestern Florida counties given the overworked environment,
but some scattered showers may develop due additional ascent
provided by the perturbation aloft. However, the thermodynamics in
southeast Florida are a bit more favorable for stronger downpours.
Recent trends among hi-res guidance seem to show the stalled frontal
boundary sagging a little bit further south than before. Most models
are focusing precipitation along the eastern half of the region,
where coastal convergence from easterly flow at the surface will
help sustain showers and storms. The HRRR, NAM and ARW in particular
have storms initiating along the coast as early as 3 AM EDT, with
activity spreading southward towards Dade through the morning.
Then, a second round of activity during the afternoon develops
along the Gulf Breeze in SW FL and spreads eastward through the
evening, once again supported by coastal convergence. The FV3 and
RRFS have most convection a little bit later, coinciding with
better daytime heating instability and forcing aloft from the
trough. This solution could also shows a stronger thermal
gradient along the Atlantic coast, where a developing surface low
over the Gulf Stream would already be enhancing activity.
Regardless of which solution pans out, there is moderate to high
confidence of some urban flooding impacts along coastal Broward,
Dade, and Palm Beach Counties.

This is a kind of set up where someone may get the "best case" (10th
percentile) rainfall amounts, while someone else just down the road
may get a "worst case" (90th percentile) rainfall event, depending
on where training storms will develop. At the very least, most of
South Florida will see a couple of dreary days with persistent rain
showers and some stronger storms with lightning. "Most likely"
amounts (50th percentile) for the Tuesday through Wednesday period
remain steady at 1 to 3 inches across the eastern counties. High end
amounts from the HREF show widespread areas of 3 to 4 inches, with
some bullseyes of over 6 inches along coastal areas for Tuesday
alone. Given the favorable set up for heavy rain and the upper end
of guidance trending higher, have opted to issue a Flood Watch for
metro Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties for Tuesday.
Localized urban flooding will be the main concern, with low lying
areas and poor drainage areas seeing ponding water. Some roadways
may become impassable as drainages become clogged by debris.

Shower activity should be winding down by Tuesday evening, with most
guidance showing a relatively uneventful night convection wise.
However, strong northeasterly winds will begin to kick in across
central and south Florida in response to a tightening pressure
gradient between a 1010 mb sfc low over the Gulf Stream and a 1025-
1040 mb sfc high over the mid-atlantic states. Deterministic guidance
has trended up for winds over northern and central Florida, but
remain lighter over south Florida. NBM probs once again show only
about a 30% chance of winds exceeding 30 kts over the Atlantic
waters, still enough to create a High Risk of Rip Currents and
choppy waters. Coastal areas may see winds between 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Further inland and along the the southwest
coast, winds will generally be between 10 and 15 mph. However,
highlights have also been added for the Lake and Gulf waters where
winds will be between 15 and 25 kts through Wednesday night.

Precipitation for Wednesday looks less than Tuesday, with activity
looking to focus along the stalled front and just north of the
sfc low. Increased northeast flow along Palm Beach and Broward
could lead to another round of coastal convergence induced storms,
which could lead to some higher rain amounts. Overall, amounts
look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range, with some locally heavier
amounts of 3 to 4 inches. Given the wet antecedent conditions from
the previous day, minor urban flooding will also be a possibility
for the Atlantic coast urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

By Thursday, the longwave troughing pattern will begin to shift east
as high pressure ridging begins to build over the Gulf. Drier air
aloft will begin to push into the region behind the trough. This
drier and more stable airmass will decrease chances of
precipitation, but persistent northeast flow will keep high chances
along the Atlantic coast where coastal convergence will still
provide enough forcing for scattered showers to form. There is
less concern for urban flooding and heavy rain given that PWATs
drop down to around 1.35 inches (still 75th percentile), and
dynamics aloft are less favorable than the last few days. Ensemble
clusters are still showing a stronger signal for the Atlantic
coast, where another 1 to 2 inches may fall with some localized
heavier amounts, but anything more than that is very unlikely.

PWATs look to drop below an inch heading into the end of the week as
a drier and more stable air mass takes a hold over the Deep South.
Winds will shift more northerly as surface high pressure begins to
build over southern Georgia and northern Florida, which will help to
usher that drier air further south. Conditions still look to be
quite breezy, particularly over the waters, where hazardous marine
and beach conditions look to persist. By the end of the weekend,
models are hinting at a 585-590 dm high building over north Florida,
which should keep rain chances low across the state and temperatures
climbing into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon bringing periods of MVFR and IFR conditions to the
terminals as well as the potential for gusty winds. Shower and
thunderstorm activity should gradually diminish as the evening
progresses giving way to drier conditions overnight. Winds will
gradually become NE across all terminals overnight before
increasing out of the ENE after 15z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Tuesday will be a transition day back to breezier conditions as a
strong area of high pressure builds down the Eastern Seaboard and
the Florida Peninsula. Expect periods of moderate to heavy rain
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds (both coasts) and seas (east coast)
will remain elevated through the entire week as strong high
pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Tuesday night through
Wednesday for the Atlantic waters, Gulf waters, and Lake
Okeechobee where wave heights may be as high as 11 feet and winds
up to 30 kts. Stronger gusts between 30 and 35 kts will be
possible for the waters offshore of Palm Beach, but guidance is
currently showing only a 30% chance of sustained winds exceeding
30kts.

Winds look to peak on Wednesday before diminish overnight back
down into the 15 to 20 kt range. Brisk northeast flow will remain
through the end of the week, particularly for the Atlantic waters
off the coast of Palm Beach, where winds will still be near 25
kts on Friday. Will need to monitor to determine whether marine
highlights will be extended into the weekend, but conditions will
be choppy regardless, with wave heights between 6 and 8 feet
across the Atlantic coast.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

The threat of rip currents will drastically increase late Tuesday
through Wednesday as onshore flow increases in response to high
pressure spreading down the Peninsula. In addition to rips, surf
heights will build on Tuesday across the Palm beaches and peak
along the entire east coast on Wednesday, with peak breakers
between 7-10 ft. Surf heights will decrease towards the end of the
week, but a high risk of rip currents will remain going into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            68  81  69  79 /  30  70  50  60
West Kendall     65  84  66  83 /  20  60  50  60
Opa-Locka        68  82  69  82 /  30  70  60  70
Homestead        68  83  69  82 /  20  60  50  60
Fort Lauderdale  68  79  69  77 /  30  70  60  70
N Ft Lauderdale  68  79  69  77 /  40  70  60  70
Pembroke Pines   69  83  70  82 /  30  70  60  70
West Palm Beach  68  77  69  77 /  50  70  70  70
Boca Raton       68  79  69  78 /  40  70  70  70
Naples           68  82  67  83 /  20  50  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172-
     173.

     High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through
     Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ651-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$