Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 7:09 PM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
708 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- No significant forecast changes. Discussion section updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of central VA and
the interior MD eastern shore tonight/Wed AM, with additional
Frost/Freeze headline potential for Wed night/Thu AM.

2) Fire weather concerns linger into tomorrow.
Remaining dry through the middle of next week, with a significant
warmup starting late this week and progressing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of
central VA and the interior MD eastern shore tonight/Wed AM, with
additional Frost/Freeze headline potential for Wed night/Thu AM.

Strong high pressure (~1035mb) over MI is building toward the local
area behind a cold front that swept through the area this morning.
This sfc high will slide into the Northeast CONUS tonight into
tomorrow as it continues to strengthen toward 1040mb. With the
center of the high to the north, the winds will not diminish enough
for optimal radiational cooling conditions. Nevertheless, still
expecting near or below freezing temperatures tonight across much of
the FA thanks to cool, dry air advecting in. Could see temps drop as
low as 29 in the far NW (Louisa/Fluvanna) and 30-32 for other
central and northern piedmont counties as well at the MD Eastern
Shore. Elsewhere, lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s. The Freeze
Warnings are unchanged since last night`s forecast package. Luckily
with the light wind and dewpoint depressions over 10 degrees, frost
should not be an issue tonight, even within the freeze warnings.
Tomorrow night, however, winds will be very light or even calm
inland, dewpoints come up a few degrees, and temps will be just as
cold. Frost Advisories are likely for areas along and west of I-95
as well as on the MD Eastern Shore Wed night/Thurs morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Fire weather concerns linger into tomorrow.
Remaining dry through the middle of next week, with a significant
warmup starting late this week and progressing into next week.

This morning`s cold front brought rapidly dropping dewpoints with
it, resulting in RHs dropping below 30% for much of the area away
from the coast. Already dry conditions, the low RHs, and breezy
winds led to the issuance of an Increased Fire Danger statement for
the MD Eastern Shore and most areas N of US-460, which is in effect
until this evening. Winds do turn to the NE tomorrow allowing a slow
rise in dewpoints, but inland locations will remain dry with RHs
still between 25-30%. This may lead to an additional IFD tomorrow,
but winds are a lot more marginal. Unfortunately it does not look
like there is much relief for the dryness within the forecast
period. There is no rain in the forecast for the next 7 days.
Looking at the global ensembles, we may be waiting until the end of
next week for any kind of moisture, but even then the QPF in most of
the members is below 0.5". That`s Trouble with a capital T, that
rhymes with D, and that stands for Drought. Not expecting any
improvement in the ongoing D1/D2 drought that is ongoing for
much of the area in the near future.

Otherwise, after this brief cool down through mid week, temperatures
take an upward trend again into early next week. Temps return to the
70s for Thurs and Fri, then warm well above normal Sun-Mon with
highs well into the 80s as an upper level ridge builds across the SE
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 708 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/08 TAF period. High level
cloud cover on the backside of a cold front will continue to gradually
clear out as a strong high pressure system builds in from the
NW. Gusty W-NW winds remain breezy into tomorrow at ORF and ECG.
Otherwise, winds diminish overnight, turning to the N, then the
NE.

Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions through Saturday. NE winds
stay elevated Wed- Thu along the coast in SE VA and NE NC, with
winds generally 10 kt or less elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

-  Strong high pressure in the wake of a dry cold front will
   bring elevated N to NE winds tonight through midweek. Another
   round of SCA are in effect tonight into Wed morning over the
   rivers, and into later tomorrow/early Thu over the Bay and
   Currituck Sound.

-  Elevated seas will maintain SCA on the ocean from tonight
   through at least late Thu night/Friday, and possibly into the
   upcoming weekend.

Latest analysis reveals 1036+mb chilly surface high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front dropped across the
waters early this morning, with obs NNW winds averaging 15-20 kt in
its wake over the Bay, and in the 10-15 kt range over the rivers and
coastal zones. High pressure will build east over the interior
northeast and New England tonight into early Wednesday. Meanwhile,
low pressure is forecast to slide off the southeast coast east of
FL/GA. The resultant compressing pressure gradient along with
ongoing CAA from the high to the north will bring a second, stronger
surge of NNE winds tonight into early Wednesday. SCA is now in place
for all zones this evening, with solid SCA-level winds forecast. The
highest winds across the lower portions of the Chesapeake Bay and
the southern coastal waters.

The surface high becomes anchored from southern New England into the
northern Mid-Atlantic region early Wed, as it builds to 1040+mb
through midweek. The resultant long fetch of E-NE wind should build
seas to 5-7 ft (potentially higher) for the NC and southern VA ocean
zones where seas likely will remain at SCA levels into at least
Friday. Numerical guidance often underplays winds this onshore flow
regime, and have continued to steer the forecast toward the high end
of the guidance envelope for winds and gusts for that reason through
Fri morning. Have used NBM90 blend with CONSAll to reflect the
likely stronger than modeled push of cool marine air tonight through
midweek. Winds slowly moderate gradually later tomorrow morning and
tomorrow afternoon, as the high shifts offshore. During this time,
expect winds over the middle and upper Bay, rivers, and northern
coastal waters diminish as the pressure gradient slowly relaxes.
However, channeling effect will keep winds and seas elevated across
the lower Bay and southern coastal waters, and perhaps the lower
James River. SCA winds will linger in these waters through at least
evening, while the prolonged period of ENE winds will keep seas
elevated in the southern waters through at least Thursday night, so
the SCA has been maintained through then, and will likely need to be
extended into Friday  and perhaps into the upcoming weekend for
seas, even as winds turn offshore Friday and Saturday. Have also
extended the SCA over the mouth of Ches Bay into Thu evening for
now, and may need to take it a bit farther into Friday with
subsequent forecast packages.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>025.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-
     060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-090-509>523.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064-068-069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631-
     635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ634-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$