Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 8:12 PM

AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
804 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An extended period of hazardous marine conditions beginning
tonight and persisting through the end of the work- week. Gale
conditions expected tonight into Wednesday night.

2) Elevated fire danger today in NE SC and likely Wednesday
across SE NC and NE SC.

3) Hazardous surf conditions at the coast into the weekend.

4) Below normal temperatures through Thursday night, with a very
low risk for patchy frost inland Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An extended period of hazardous marine
conditions beginning tonight and persisting through the end of
the work- week. Gale conditions expected tonight into Wednesday
night.

See Marine Section below for details.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated fire danger today in NE SC and likely
Wednesday across SE NC and NE SC.

A large, cold, and dry airmass is sinking into the Great Lakes.
Many single digit dewpoints are noted across most of the area.
The southern periphery of this airmass will start to encroach
into the Carolinas tonight into Wednesday dropping our dewpoints
into the 30s. The increased pressure gradient between this high
and the frontal boundary well offshore (all of FL and most of
the SE coast a baroclinic leaf on satellite) builds winds
locally. And although Red Flag Warning conditions should not
develop the current drought along the with falling dewpoints and
gusty winds will almost guarantee Fire Danger Statements area-
wide through the afternoon just like today`s, which was confined
to our SC zones only. The drying is pronounced through the
entire column. PW values fall to 0.19", the absolute lowest for
the date.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Hazardous surf conditions at the coast into the
weekend.

Strengthening and prolonged northeast winds will lead to elevated
breaking waves along the coast tonight into late week, potentially
reaching our High Surf Advisory threshold of 6 ft as early as late
tonight along E-facing beaches and continue into Thu night,
mainly for E/SE- facing beaches.

An elevated rip current risk is also anticipated into late week
due to strong winds and elevated surf, mainly for E/SE-facing
beaches. Strong longshore currents are also expected due to
strong NE winds through at least Thursday.


KEY MESSAGE 4...Below normal temperatures through Thursday
night, with a very low risk for patchy frost inland Wednesday
night.

Unseasonably cool airmass in place due to high pressure to the north
into late week. The coldest temps are expected tonight and Wed night
when some of the normally colder inland spots should dip into the
30s, although the risk for frost and even freezing temps looks to be
quite low given the elevated clouds/winds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. NE winds will become gusty late tonight which should
decrease the chances of wind shear ~12Z, gusts ~15-20 kts. Gusts
around 25 kts will continue through the day Wednesday with
overhead cirrus.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR conditions expected through
the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday... Strong 1035mb high currently being pushed into
the Great Lakes my northern branch jet. Meanwhile well offshore the
fairly healthy frontal boundary that brought the end to our warm
weather this past Sunday. As the high continues south and east its
southern periphery will develop a wedge up against the Appalachians.
Northeasterly winds will pick up through the period as the gradient
between these two features tightens. Gale Warning remains in effect
unchanged as it lasts through the period.

Wednesday night through Saturday night...Strong high pressure to the
north will be the main driver of an enhanced pressure gradient over
the area into late week leading to solid Small Craft Advisory
conditions. The gradient should peak Wed night when gale force gusts
are expected. Although winds will subside below SCA levels by Fri,
seas will likely not fall below SCA levels (6 ft) until Fri night
and/or early Sat. Significant wave heights should peak at around 10-
11 ft Wed night with only a very slow fall thereafter as the high
weakens.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$