Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 8:12 PM

AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
804 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have issued a high surf advisory for portions of the OBX between
Wed and Thursday given elevated surf heights.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A dry cold front is moving south of the area as of this update
and will bring below avg temps to ENC through Wed.

2) Stiff winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore will build
seas on Wed and into late week bringing high surf criteria to
portions of the OBX as well as the potential for wave run up
and ocean overwash concerns for vulnerable portions of the OBX.

3) Warming trend and and mostly dry weather forecast to follow the
front. Well above normal temperatures this weekend and into next
week.

Marine...Behind a dry cold front the pressure gradient tightens
bringing a mix of gales and small craft advisory conditions to our
area waters starting this afternoon and continuing into Wednesday.
Sea driven SCAs to follow the gales for coastal waters potentially
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A dry cold front is currently working its way
through ENC and should push offshore within the next few hours.
This front is noted by a wind shift to the NE and breezy
conditions behind the front especially along the OBX where
gusts of 25-35 mph are noted. Otherwise the shield of cirrus
that has stubbornly stuck around the area remains as dry air
aloft has yet to work its way into the Carolinas. Either way,
this has muted highs somewhat with high temps today getting into
the low to mid 60s across ENC. Temps have likely reached their
max for today and we should see a steady cooling trend into
tonight. Lows tonight will get into the upper 30s to low 40s and
while this would usually bring a low end threat for some patchy
frost across the western coastal plain given the forecasted
lows, we remain well mixed enough (so windy enough) to preclude
any frost threat tonight.

As this front continues south, expect a low pressure system
currently located in the Gulf to ride Eneward along this
boundary tomorrow. At the same time, a strong high pressure
ridge will build into the Northeast. The combination of the
strong high and departing front/low will bring a rather strong
pressure gradient to the area bringing cool NEerly winds to ENC.
Latest trends in guidance have lowered max wind gusts slightly
across the region but it will still be breezy. While we will
likely have borderline wind advisory criteria along the Core
Banks and portions of southern Ocracoke Island near the town
itself, confidence was not high enough to include a wind
advisory on this update for tonight as we may remain just below
advisory thresholds. Regardless of this, it will still be very
breezy tonight across the OBX to Downeast Carteret County with
max gusts around 35-40 mph possible. Given the direction of the
winds this will bring a relatively cool maritime airmass over
ENC keeping temps below avg on Wed as high temps only get into
the mid 50s to low 60s on Wed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The strong NE`rly winds over ENC and low
pressure passing offshore will further build long period swell
that will approach the coast and lead to building seas tonight
into Wed night. This swell could lead to wave runup concerns
and ocean overwash at particularly vulnerable locations along
the OBX coast from Oregon Inlet S through Cape Lookout starting
Wednesday. Given the latest forecast guidance and marginal
nature of the overwash threat as of right now, have elected to
just issue a high surf advisory for the beaches between Oregon
Inlet down to Cape Lookout starting midday Wed and going into
midday Thurs. For the high surf advisory there will be the
potential for breaking waves around 8 ft along the affected
beaches. As mentioned above, this could lead to some minor ocean
overwash due to wave runup. While no coastal flood advisory has
been issued yet, we are monitoring the potential for this and
if the threat increases one may become necessary in future
updates. While guidance has trended slightly more optimistic
with seas over the next few days, there is still is some
uncertainty with how long the longer period swell persists. This
could result in a longer duration high surf advisory and the
inclusion of a coastal flood advisory if the more pessimistic
guidance plays out.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Mid to late week, the aforementioned low
pressure system tracks out into the open waters of the Atlantic
departing from the area and allowing winds to ease from Thursday
into the end of the week. Some global guidance solutions
suggest some subtle coastal troughing developing across the
Carolina Coast Thu. Though will note, recent trends have begun
to back off this idea and PoP`s have lowered as compared to the
previous update. For now we have at least a SChc of light
offshore showers skirting the coast from Oregon Inlet S through
the Crystal Coast Thurs afternoon. Building low level
thicknesses through the end of the work week allows warming
temps despite the light NEerly flow regime, upper 60s THU, mid
70s FRI. Sun afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, veering local winds more E`rly Sun and then
becoming S`rly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs
into the upper 80s at the end of the forecast period (next Tue).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A post-frontal north to northeast flow is now well established
across ENC. Within this flow, winds are expected to be
occasionally gusty at times this evening and tonight, especially
along the Outer Banks and as far inland as KEWN to KOAJ. Then,
during the day Wednesday, gusty winds are expected areawide. For
most terminals, gusts of 20-25kt are expected. For runways
along the immediate coast, gusts as high as 25-35kt are
expected.

A plume of high clouds will continue to stream over the area
through tonight. A brief period of clearing is expected on
Wednesday. This may be short-lived, though, as guidance suggests
low clouds may develop offshore and migrate inland by Wednesday
evening. For now, the TAFs will show VFR conditions through
Wednesday afternoon. Should sub-VFR CIGs develop, it looks like
it would be after 00z/Thursday.

Outlook: Low VFR or MVFR CIGs are possible Wednesday evening
into Thursday morning. After improvement during the day
Thursday, a risk of sub-VFR conditions may once again develop
Thursday night, this time due to BR/FG.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front is tracking through the area this afternoon and
marine conditions are deteriorating rapidly across ENC. Have
already seen SCA criteria winds across the northern sounds and
rivers as well as the coastal waters as N`rly breezes have
increased to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts behind the front
while just south of the front slightly weaker winds persist.
Seas have yet to respond significantly to the elevated winds
with coastal waters showing 3-5 ft seas as of this update.
Either way, forecast thinking has not changed as conditions
will continue to deteriorate tonight with winds becoming NE`rly
across all waters at 20-30 kts and gusts to 30-40 kts, while
seas build to 7-11 ft at 8-10 sec across the coastal waters with
wind waves on top of it. Highest seas over the Gulf Stream
where swell direction will oppose the current. This will bring a
mix of small craft and gale force conditions to our waters.
These elevated winds and seas will continue into Wed morning
before gradually easing as NE`rly winds lower to 15-25 kts with
gusts up to 25-35 kts. Seas will continue to remain elevated at
7-11ft with periods increasing further closer to 9-10 sec. This
will bring and end to the gales across the Pamlico Sound and
central waters by Wed evening, though gales will likely persist
across our southern waters into Wed night. SCA`s across all
other waters will also remain in place as well into Wed night.

Outlook: Elevated winds and seas will continue into Wed night
with winds easing by Thurs morning across our waters thus ending
SCA conditions across our inland waters and the last of the
gales by Thurs morning. Seas however remain at 6+ ft into the
weekend thus keeping SCA conditions across our coastal waters
into this weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory from noon Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday
     for NCZ196-204-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-
     231.
     Gale Warning until 3 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ136.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$