Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 9:09 PM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
906 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 857 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- A critical combination of wind, low humidity, and dry fuels is
  forecast today, mainly over part of southwest Georgia and the eastern
  Florida Panhandle, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect until
  8pm EDT / 7pm CDT. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

- Strong northeast to east winds are expected through Thursday.
  The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday over our
  southeastern-most counties, with a medium (40-70%) chance of
  wind advisory level gusts. Over the Gulf waters, a Gale Warning
  is in effect for tonight through Wednesday night.

- Low water from persistent offshore flow will lead to moderate
  navigational hazards around the times of low tide tonight and Wednesday
  night for coastal areas from the St. Marks river to the
  Suwannee river.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A few tweaks were made to tonight`s forecast:

-decreased rain chances over the waters
-adjusted temperatures & dew points based on observations.

The dew points were the most notable change as there is a NE-SW
ribbon of relatively low Td`s stretching roughly from Fitzgerald
to Panama City. This swath matches up well with satellite- derived
Precipitable Water around 0.4". A mix of clouds and elevated
winds should keep overnight lows from bottoming out too much
despite a dry airmass in place. The warmest temperatures are
expected over the SE FL Big Bend where thicker clouds should
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Surface high pressure currently situated over the Upper Midwest
slides ESE and into the Northeast on Wednesday. This will help
enhance the pressure gradient between this feature and the cold
front to our south, making for what will likely be the windiest day
of this period on Wednesday. Winds will be highest in our
southeastern-most counties south of I-10 and near the I-75
corridor where gusts may exceed 35mph. Elsewhere, inland wind
gusts around 25- 30mph is more likely. For our marine zones, a
gale warning for frequent gale force gusts is in effect starting
Wednesday morning and continuing through Thursday morning. Minimum
RH values on Wednesday increase slightly, helping limit fire
weather concerns somewhat compared to today. Still, high winds and
antecedent drought/dry fuels will mean that any fires that
initiate may spread quickly despite conditions being unlikely to
meet red flag criteria. Please follow instructions from local
officials and obey any burn bans that in effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Winds begin to taper off on Thursday but still remain breezy with
frequent inland gusts of 20-25mph possible during the day.
Temperatures start an upward trend on Thursday, with daytime highs
reaching the upper 70s and low 80s. By the weekend, ridging
establishes overtop the region driving daytime high temperatures
into the mid-upper 80s, which will be ~5-10 degrees above average
for this time of year. Overnight low temperatures will be closer to
average in the mid-50s. With no significant rainfall anticipated
through the end of the forecast period, drought conditions are
expected to worsen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

The main change to the inherited TAFs from the 18Z package was add
a PROB30 group at TLH/VLD for -SHRA from 18-24Z. A slight
slackening of easterly winds tonight become very gusty starting
mid to late tmrw morning. Highest gusts expected across the
eastern terminals. Otherwise, VFR conds are fcst.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Rough conditions are expected on the Gulf waters until Friday. The
pressure gradient will tighten between strong high pressure to the
north and a broad area of low pressure over South Florida and the
Bahamas through Wednesday evening. This will support gale-force wind
gusts over the waters starting Wednesday morning. A Gale Warning is
in effect from late tonight through Wednesday night for marine zones
outside the zone from the Okaloosa/Walton county line to Mexico
Beach out to 20nm. Low pressure will finally start to move east on
Thursday, and high pressure to the north will start to weaken. So
gradual improvement is expected later Thursday through Friday. On
Saturday, a bubble of high pressure over the coastal Carolinas will
support gentle to moderate easterlies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A red flag warning continues for a corridor from Southwest Georgia
into the Florida Panhandle where critically low RH is overlapping
with elevated easterly/northeasterly transport winds and very high
dispersions. Easterly winds will be even higher on Wednesday,
however minimum RHs will likely not be as low as today. Still,
strong winds alongside extremely dry fuels from antecedent drought
conditions will yield elevated fire concerns on Wednesday even
though the chances for a Red Flag criteria being met are low at this
point. Winds begin a downtrend on Thursday, with a warming and
drying trend following as upper level high pressure settles into the
region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

No hydrologically significant rainfall is expected for the next 7
days. Therefore, no flooding is expected. Drought conditions will
persist or worsen

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   56  74  55  78 /   0  20  10  10
Panama City   58  76  57  78 /   0  20  20   0
Dothan        53  73  51  76 /   0  10  10   0
Albany        53  73  50  76 /   0  10  10   0
Valdosta      55  73  53  77 /   0  20  20  10
Cross City    58  73  58  78 /  10  40  20  20
Apalachicola  60  72  59  74 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775.

     Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday to 8 AM EDT /7
     AM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for GMZ751.

&&

$$