Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 10:24 PM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1011 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will wax and wane
  across the forecast area overnight.

- Bouts of wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday
  or Wednesday night, with less confidence in rainfall coverage
  for Thursday.

- Near the end of the week, breezy to possibly windy conditions
  may return, lasting through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
A rather busy afternoon and early evening for your Florida Keys
Meteorologists. A well-defined, early season island cloud line
formed across portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. Many island
communities saw measurable rainfall owed to weak steering flow
associated with the storms. Estimated rainfall amounts ranged from
just a trace of rainfall for some areas, all the way up to 2-4"
in a bullseye between Ramrod and the Torch Keys. This along with
additional convection in the southeastern Gulf waned shortly
before sunset, leaving only a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms at this late evening hour. Temperatures are
generally in the mid 70s across the Keys, with nighttime satellite
products detecting generally partly cloudy skies.

For overnight, given the aforementioned radar trends, it is
tempting to lower PoPs for the balance of tonight. However, local
meteorological expertise suggests several caveats need to be
considered. First, as sampled in the 00z evening sounding at KEY,
there is still ample convective potential instability, with
limited inhibition, for areas that experienced limited earlier
activity today. KBYX radar is detecting a number of residual
convective boundaries lurking all over the CWA. Finally, the
large-scale pattern has not changed over the past 12-24 hours,
with a stationary surface front to the north and an upper-level
shortwave trough to the west of the Keys to provide synoptic
support for ascent. Given these factors, will maintain mid-level
chance rain with isolated thunder chances for tonight, although
development may take several hours to take place. No changes made
to the inherited short-term forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
A frontal boundary stalled north of the Florida Keys will be
responsible for breezes becoming gentle to moderate overnight, and
scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms across the local
waters. Seas will be elevated across western marine zones due to a
northwest swell. Breezes are forecast to freshen late in the week
to the weekend as the front pushes southward, but confidence is
low at this time with regards to timing of onset.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
Lurking boundaries from earlier storms in the vicinity of the
Keys may interact, supporting additional scattered shower and
isolated thunderstorms overnight. Confidence is low for this
scenario, but this will be reevaluated for the 06z TAF issuance.
Confidence is higher that a cloud line will form late tomorrow
morning near the terminals. Included mention of VCSH to account
for this for now, with later TAF issuances, to address these
impacts as confidence increases, including possible TEMPOs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  70  80  71 /  50  30  40  30
Marathon  80  71  81  72 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$